What is Saudi Arabia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
In 2017, energy-related industry emissions accounted for 21% of total emissions in Saudi Arabia, the second biggest share after the power sector. Industrial process-related emissions accounted for 9% of total emissions. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of oil. In 2020, Saudi Arabia accounted for nearly 13% of global oil production, next only to the USA.1 Saudi Arabia is also one of the largest producers of fossil gas in the world accounting for approximately 3% of global production in 2020.2 Both industrial energy and process-related emissions have increased more than fivefold in Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2017.
Saudi Arabia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To be compatible with 1.5°C pathway, energy-related CO₂ emissions in Saudi Arabia would need to decline from 117 MtCO₂ in 2019 to 52–57 MtCO₂/yr in 2030 (51–56% below 2019 levels) and to 15–17 MtCO₂/yr in 2050 (85–88% below 2019 levels). The share of electricity in the industry energy mix should increase from 10% in 2019 to 27–46% by 2050. Besides direct electrification, energy efficiency improvements, the use of green hydrogen, and curbing fugitive emissions could be key levers to decarbonise the industry sector in Saudi Arabia.
In October 2021, Saudi Arabia announced its commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2060.3 The government plans to use one of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, Jafurah field, to produce large-scale blue hydrogen and utilise carbon sequestration technologies to achieve its net zero target.4 However, blue hydrogen is highly emissions intensive,5 and Saudi Arabia still intends to produce oil for decades to come. Such plans contradict the government’s commitment to net zero emissions.6
Saudi Arabia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Saudi Arabia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Saudi Arabia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
117
|
52 to
57
|
25 to
29
|
15 to
17
|
2056 to
2060
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-56 to
-51%
|
-78 to
-75%
|
-88 to
-85%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
10
|
11 to
13
|
18 to
27
|
27 to
46
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
10
|
15 to
16
|
20 to
38
|
37 to
70
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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