Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its updated first NDC, submitted in 2021, Saudi Arabia states its intention to reduce up to 278 MtCO₂e annually (incl. LULUCF) by 2030 through contributions to economic diversification and adaptation measures that also entail mitigation co-benefits.¹ We assume that the target is in relation to a business-as-usual scenario; however, the NDC’s formulation in that regard is unclear. Based on the Climate Action Tracker’s assumption, the target translates to an emissions level of 524–799 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF in 2030, or a change of –25 to +14% compared to 2015 levels.² A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Saudi Arabia would see the country reducing its emissions by 51% by 2030 below 2015 levels, or 347 MtCO₂e/yr.

Considering the energy sector’s large share of Saudi Arabia’s overall emissions, a majority of emissions reductions will need to come from this sector followed by industrial processes and waste. Under current policies, the country’s total GHG emissions are projected to increase by 5% above 2015 levels to 738 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.³

Saudi Arabia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

The Saudi Arabian government announced a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 in October 2021 ahead of COP26. This is yet to be followed by an official communication.⁴ The government has not set the target in policy nor communicated key details, such as the scope of the target.

To be 1.5°C compatible, Saudi Arabia would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 86% below 2015 levels, when excluding the contribution of LULUCF sinks, to reach 96 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. CO₂ emissions should be reduced by 92% below 2015 levels, reaching 46 MtCO₂/yr.⁵ The remaining emissions will need to be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.⁶ The steep emissions reductions will require stringent and ambitious policies in sectors such as power, industry (including oil and gas), and transport.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The biggest sources of GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia are fuel combustion in the energy sector (electricity generation, industry, and transport), fugitive emissions (e.g., from extraction of oil and gas), and industrial processes. Clear and stringent policies are crucial for the transformation of these sectors.

To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, the share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix would need to decline from almost 100% now to 34–66% by 2050. All analysed 1.5°C pathways also show a significant reduction in total energy demand, resulting in an absolute decrease in unabated fossil fuel use of 75–83% below 2019 levels by 2050.

Saudi Arabia would need to set ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy targets across different sub-sectors and implement clear and stringent policies to transform the energy sector.

Saudi Arabia is strongly committed to the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and use (CCU) projects and its NDC specifically states the goal to build “the world’s largest carbon capture and use plant to capture and purify about 1500 tons of CO₂ a day for use in petrochemical plants”.⁷ For a country like Saudi Arabia whose economy is highly reliant on fossil fuels, betting on CCS could represent a risk of significant stranded assets, should this technology not become available at scale. CCS technologies also have negative impacts on sustainability in terms of increased water use, higher resource demands, and mining and production-related environmental impacts. Also, the relative cost trend between CCS in the power sector and renewables means that CCS in the power sector is increasingly unlikely to be able to ever compete with renewable energy. As a water scarce country with high renewable energy potential, Saudi Arabia would benefit from transitioning to a fully renewable energy-based system that avoids reliance on CCS.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Saudi Arabia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	702	646	347 295 to 386	169 128 to 176	96 78 to 104
Relative to reference year in %			-51% -58 to -45%	-76% -82 to -75%	-86% -89 to -85%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	593	532	319 243 to 362	131 54 to 174	46 13 to 109
Relative to reference year in %			-46% -59 to -39%	-78% -91 to -71%	-92% -98 to -82%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022). ↩
BBC News. Saudi Arabia commits to net zero emissions by 2060. (2021). ↩
In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Government of Saudi Arabia. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC. (2015). ↩

What is Saudi Arabia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Saudi Arabia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Saudi Arabia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Saudi Arabia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google