Romania’s 2030 GHG emissions reduction target, estimated to reflect a 7% increase above 2005 levels, is insufficiently ambitious to align with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, which requires 2030 emissions to be 58-63% below 2005 levels.
In its review of Romania’s NECP, the EU Commission criticised Romania’s lack of ambition in meeting its 2030 targets. In a range of areas, from energy efficiency to increasing the share of renewables, Romania is failing to meet the 2030 national targets recommended by the EU. Similarly, a lack of sectoral targets in critical sectors such as transport and agriculture mean that Romania could easily see an increase in emissions from these sectors.
Long term pathway
Romania has no long-term target in place. To be 1.5°C compatible, Romania would need to reach emissions reductions of 88% below 1990 levels by 2040 (excl. LULUCF) and 94% below 1990 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF).
1.5°C scenarios show that remaining emissions in 2050 largely come from agriculture, which, together with waste, is responsible for almost all non-CO₂ emissions. Romania would need to balance its remaining emissions by mid-century through carbon dioxide removal approaches such as reforestation efforts and direct air capture.