What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, CO₂ emissions from the buildings sector would peak around 2025, followed by a rapid decline towards full decarbonisation by 2040. This transition would be driven by accelerated electrification to meet growing energy demand, which would support a near phase-out of oil by 2050.

Under the HPA, sectoral energy consumption would increase to 77% above 2023 levels by 2035 and more than triple by 2050. Over the same period, electricity use would more than double by 2035 – meeting 82% of total demand – and grow more than fivefold by 2050, supplying nearly all of the sector’s energy demand. This rapid electrification would also enable a phase-out of bioenergy by around 2035, helping to mitigate associated challenges such as deforestation and upward pressure on global vegetable oil prices.

Decarbonising the buildings sector would require prioritising the transition from LPG-based cooking to electric alternatives. While cooking dominates household energy consumption, in 2025 less than 1% of cooking energy demand was met by electricity.²2 Based on historical adoption trends, only around 1 mn households are projected to use induction stoves by 2060 – far below the government’s target of 43.4 mn.³3 Bridging this gap would require targeted subsidies and incentive schemes to accelerate the uptake of electric cooking technologies.

In parallel, improving energy efficiency in buildings would be essential. This includes strengthening minimum energy performance standards – which currently lag behind ASEAN benchmarks – and promoting certified green buildings, where progress has been slower than envisaged in the national Green Building Roadmap for 2030.⁴4