What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Future Pathway

Current trends and future pathway

Under current policies, Indonesia’s emissions are projected to rise to 1521–1610 MtCO₂e by 2030 (105–117% above 2010 levels) and further to 1639–1740 MtCO₂e by 2035 (121–134% above 2010), excluding LULUCF. These trajectories fall substantially short of the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, which minimises overshoot of the 1.5°C limit.

Under the HPA scenario, total emissions excluding LULUCF would instead peak at around 1242 MtCO₂e by 2030 (67% above 2010) and decline rapidly thereafter to approximately 1017 MtCO₂e by 2035 (37% above 2010). The widening gap between Indonesia’s current policy trajectory and a 1.5°C aligned pathway by 2035 underscores the need for significantly strengthened mitigation policies, including scaling up non-biomass renewables and phasing out fossil fuels.

Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.  

Long term pathway

In its 2025 NDC submission and long term strategy, Indonesia plans to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions “by 2060 or sooner”, with land-based sinks playing a central role.1, 2 The long term strategy also outlines an intermediate target of 540 MtCO₂e by 2050 (including LULUCF) under a “low-carbon scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement.”3 However, President Prabowo has envisioned achieving net zero before 2050.4 Despite these targets, Indonesia lacks a clearly defined and comprehensive policy pathway to achieve them.5

Under our HPA scenario, Indonesia’s CO₂ emissions would decline rapidly after peaking around 2030, reaching negative levels by 2070. This trajectory would be enabled by a full fossil fuel phase-out. Coal leads in 2043 in Indonesia, followed by gas by 2054 and oil by 2067.

While such a fossil fuel phase-out could help deliver a 61% reduction in emissions by 2060 relative to 2010 levels, residual emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture, waste, and industrial processes would persist. As a result, total residual emissions would remain at approximately 290 MtCO₂e by 2060. Minimising these residual emissions to the maximum possible extent will be essential to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and temperature overshoot, thus ensuring a credible pathway to overall net zero.

Given that the HPA scenario reflects a global pathway to net zero, it allows for differentiated regional trajectories, whereby countries such as Indonesia may continue limited non-fossil fuel based emissions-positive activities while others achieve net-negative emissions earlier, supporting a just transition.

The HPA would align with Indonesia’s 2060 net zero target if a large land-based sink exists or other sectors achieve deeper reductions than projected. However, Indonesia’s land sector is currently a significant source of emissions and the long-term durability of land based sinks is increasingly in question. This highlights the need for emissions reductions across all sectors to the maximum extent possible . To meet its domestic long term 2060 net zero target, Indonesia could therefore consider deploying limited land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to address non-fossil fuel residual emissions .

Indonesia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks for Indonesia. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
2010
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
742
1188
1242
1017
780
439
290
174
Relative to reference year in %
67%
37%
5%
-41%
-61%
-77%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
450
782
836
649
455
200
66
-9
Relative to reference year in %
86%
44%
1%
-56%
-85%
-102%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1272
382 to 573
92 to 314
-26 to 98
-341 to -90
-216 to -34
17 to 83
Relative to reference year in %
-70 to -55%
-93 to -75%
-102 to -92%
-127 to -107%
-117 to -103%
-99 to -93%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
980
-860 to -669
-925 to -703
-806 to -682
-780 to -529
-506 to -324
-157 to -91
Relative to reference year in %
-188 to -168%
-194 to -172%
-182 to -170%
-180 to -154%
-152 to -133%
-116 to -109%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). 

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