What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary energy
Primary energy
Historically, Indonesia has been heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Fossil fuels supply around 78% of the total energy mix, and their use increased by 63% between 2010-2023.1 Over this thirteen-year period, coal’s share rose from 15% to 36%, while gas declined from 23% to 16%, and oil from 41% to 26%. 2
Indonesia's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, Indonesia’s total primary energy supply would grow by 30% between 2023 and 2035. By 2060, its primary energy is expected to grow by over 180%, reflecting continued economic expansion.
Despite this continued growth in energy demand, substantial emissions reductions remain achievable through the accelerated deployment of non-biomass renewables. Under the HPA scenario, this would require roughly doubling non-biomass renewables supply by 2030 (supporting emissions peaking around that time) and more than quadrupling it by 2035 relative to 2023 levels. By 2040, non-biomass renewables would increase tenfold, supplying around two-thirds of the energy mix. Such a transition would enable a coal phase-out by 2040, followed by gas by 2050 and oil by 2060, alongside a gradual reduction in biomass use to around 2% by 2060. This is supported through the end-use sector electrification.
Against a backdrop of previously slow progress in renewable deployment, more ambitious targets and strengthened implementation policies are required.3 These should be supported by enhanced financial incentives, improved investment frameworks, and mobilisation of international climate finance (such as through the Just Energy Transition Partnership) to unlock Indonesia’s non-biomass renewable potential, accelerate the fossil fuel phase-out, promote renewables-based electrification and energy efficiency, and reduce reliance on bioenergy. This would facilitate a transition toward sustainable economic growth decoupled from energy-intensive production, help drive emissions reductions, and reduce dependence on land-based sinks, all while delivering broader environmental and socio-economic co-benefits.4