What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Long term pathway

Globally, the HPA scenario requires significant emissions cuts globally between now and 2040 to achieve net zero CO₂ before 2040 and reach net zero GHG emissions in the 2060s, minimising overshoot of the 1.5ºC limit. Achieving net zero will require CDR to compensate for remaining residual emissions (for example in agriculture or waste). However, the date by which different regions or countries reach net zero GHGs depends on the pace and depth of the fossil phase-out, the scale of CDR rollout, and the residual non-CO₂ emissions that remain. While we currently do not specify country-level CDR results, we find that it is a key lever at the global scale. Further details on our approach to CDR, including sustainability and feasibility bounds and the role of the land-sector can be found in the methodology and our report Rescuing 1.5ºC: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement.⁴4 The technological CDR discussion in Colombia is an emerging but yet immature topic, as there is currently no clear national strategy focused on CDR, or defined expectations for its potential contribution by 2050. The Colombian Chamber of Cement and Concrete (PROCEMCO’s) roadmap targets carbon neutrality by 2050, prioritising industrial-scale carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) to neutralise residual process emissions.⁵5

Colombia’s total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF drop rapidly, reaching zero just before 2040. In the HPA scenario, Colombia’s total GHG emissions decrease by 89% by 2050 without LULUCF, which is aligned with the country’s long-term strategy. Residual emissions are likely methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from non-energy use such as agriculture or waste and industrial process emissions (such as cement). Considering that the country foresees LULUCF to become a net sink by 2050 in its Long-Term Climate Strategy E2050, although quite uncertain, it has the theoretical potential to counterbalance the residual 18 MtCO₂e. However, this could be a challenge. In 2023, an all-time low of 79,000 hectares were deforested, marking a 36% decrease compared to previous year according to the government.⁶6 However, a worrying reversal of this trend during 2024 led to 43% increase year-on-year, with more than 100,000 hectares of deforestation.⁷7 Deforestation continues to be a challenge in Colombia and highlights the precariousness of relying on LULUCF becoming a net sink and the need to focus primarily on deep emission reductions in the overall energy system.

In November 2021, Colombia submitted its Long-Term Climate Strategy E2050 to the UNFCCC.⁸8 The strategy includes a pathway to reach a 2050 net zero GHG emissions target and outlines nine strategic initiatives with 48 transformation options for decision-makers to consider.

Colombia reiterated its commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 in its latest NDC, as enshrined in Law 2169 of 2021 (Climate Action Law).⁹9^{, 10}10 To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, GHG emissions are planned to be reduced by 90% from 2015 levels while the remaining 10% will be balanced with absorptions from ‘national removal methods’.