What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

According to the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, Colombia could already, by 2035, reduce its oil use to 67% of transport demand by scaling up EVs (reaching 13%) and biofuels. By 2050, electricity becomes the ‘new oil’ (reaching a 73% share) supporting Colombia – along with biofuels – effectively phase out fossil fuels from its transport energy mix. Biofuels act as a bridge fuel, peaking in 2040 before falling to less than 8% by 2070.

A 1.5°C compatible transport mix would be supported by synthetic fuels (11% in 2070) for shipping and aviation. This approach requires extensive upgrades to the grid, a rollout of charging infrastructure, and modal shifts towards electrified public transport and micromobility.

Provided that Colombia’s transport sector follows the Highest Possible Ambition trajectory, its direct CO₂ emissions would have already peaked in 2025, declining sharply to 2050 when fossil fuels are effectively phased out. Emissions continue to decline until 2070, essentially reaching zero.

Colombia is strengthening its policy framework for transport sector electrification and the required infrastructure. As of 2026, the country has moved into a phase of mandatory technical interoperability and infrastructure expansion. The Sustainable Mobility Law (Law 1964 of 2019) is the primary legal foundation.¹1 In late 2025, it also standardised the national charging network.²2 The government has also introduced tax and financial incentives, with 0% VAT on charging equipment and reduced VAT (5%) on EVs until at least 2027. ³3^{. 4}4 Moreover, companies that invest in public charging infrastructure are given income tax reliefs. The National Development Plan 2022–2026 set a target of 6000 public charging points by the end of 2026.⁵5 Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Eléctrica (ENME; The National Electromobility Strategy) sets a target of reaching 600,000 electric vehicles on Colombian roads by 2030.⁶6

Current trends indicate Colombia’s transport policies are having a positive impact. EV sales surged by 150% in 2024 compared to the previous year, accounting for almost 6% of total vehicle sales. In April 2025 alone, sales of low-emission vehicles accounted for approximately 38% of the market share, positioning Colombia as a regional leader in transport.⁷7

La Rolita– Operadora Distrital de Transporte is an example of a sustainable, inclusive, and care-centred transport policy initiative. It refers to Bogotá’s 100% electric public bus system, which was designed with a gender equity approach. With 195 electric buses and 63% of its drivers being women, the system prevents over 8580 tons of CO₂ emissions annually. The city also presented its Pedestrian Public Policy, which seeks to create safer and more inclusive walking spaces — especially important in a city where walking accounts for 36% of daily trips.⁸8