What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
Fossil fuels continue to dominate Colombia's primary energy mix, making up a 76% share in 2023. Overall, there has been little change since 2019, when they accounted for 77% of the mix. The most noteworthy shift in fuel composition was a small rebalancing of the shares of oil and gas. The share of gas fell by 3%, with that fall being offset by a 4% increase in oil's share of the primary energy mix. Renewables (including hydropower) continue to play a secondary role in the mix, despite the important role hydro plays in electricity generation. Colombia’s efforts to roll out wind and solar will likely lead to increased shares of renewables in the mix, as well as making the system more efficient by boosting electrification across all end-use sectors.1
Colombia's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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According to the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, by 2035 fossil fuels drop to less than 43% of the total primary energy mix, whereas by 2050 fossil fuels would be effectively eliminated from Colombia’s primary energy mix. This transformation can be driven by a large increase of renewables, which would make up more than two-thirds of the total primary energy mix while biomass accounts for the remaining third.
By 2070, non-biomass renewables (solar, wind, hydropower) would comprise 86% of primary energy, while biomass is expected – after the 2050 peak – to reduce to levels comparable with 2030 (14%). This translates to a highly electrified system that improves system efficiency, flexibility, and security.
The impact of investor-state dispute settlements on Colombia’s energy transition
Investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS) are legal mechanisms in international investment treaties which allow foreign corporations to sue governments, with claims taken in private arbitration courts for implementing policy which may impact their profits. Nearly 20% of known ISDS cases are linked to fossil fuels, with states facing multi-billion dollar lawsuits for introducing environmental policy, particularly the phase-out of fossil fuels.2
Colombia is the most vulnerable country in Latin America to ISDS, with 129 oil and gas projects exposing Colombia to 52 trillion pesos (USD 14.5 billion) in ISDS claims.3 This would effectively double the national debt.4 In response to a letter from 220 economists and legal scholars highlighting Colombia’s vulnerability to ISDS-related arbitration, in March 2026 President Petro announced that Colombia would exit the international investment arbitration system.5,6
The government’s decision to exit the ISDS system highlights the growing attention being given to ISDS and its impact on climate policy. However, sunset clauses in many treaties mean that the Colombian state can still be taken to court by fossil fuel investors for 5-20 years after the agreement is ceased.7 These clauses can be cancelled if both parties to a treaty agree, underscoring the need for bilateral and multilateral cooperation to avoid additional costs to the energy transition.