What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Based on the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, aligning with 1.5°C would see power demand grow by 125% (compared to 2023) by 2035 without an increase in emissions due to a fossil fuel phase-out. The increase in demand for electricity is primarily covered by solar and wind while the role of hydropower shrinks in relative term, thereby reducing the vulnerability of the sector to drought. Hydropower generation projected to fluctuate at around 45-60 TWh annually until 2070, not far from its historical levels. Colombia would benefit from accelerated deployment of wind and solar. However, hydropower assets can remain key for storage and flexibility for renewables-based power systems. Despite the major increase in demand, total primary energy remains broadly stable compared to 2023 levels. This is due to the substitution of the inherently inefficient nature of fossil fuels – when coal, oil and gas are burned to create electricity or motion, a large amount of their energy is wasted as heat. Electrification, on the other hand, provides energy services with near 100% efficiency (and in the case of heat pumps, above 100% efficiency). Electrification technologies are around two to four times more efficient than their fossil counterparts. Electrifying the energy system can reduce the scale of energy supply needed, even while meeting a growing demand for energy services.

A 1.5°C compatible grid would see solar become the main driver of Colombia’s power sector, meeting additional demand and pushing fossil fuels out of the system by 2035. In the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, emissions are projected to peak in 2025 reaching net zero emissions by 2035. Negative CO₂ emissions from 2035 onwards are supported by CDR technologies, which are used in the HPA to achieve a sustained post-peak temperature decline. By 2050, demand grows by more than 500% (compared to 2023) with solar accounting for almost 80% of generation. Hydropower and wind would largely cover the rest, while hydrogen contributes a small share. In energy systems with high shares of wind and solar, hydropower installations can provide valuable storage and balancing services.

Timely grid optimisation and expansion is a key enabling factor of Colombia’s electrification process as well as facilitating additional renewable capacity. It is important to stress that to move into this direction, additional investments in grid expansion and modernisation, as well as storage and demand flexibility should be prioritised to avoid curtailments and further boost renewables penetration. According to the International Energy Agency, the electricity grid in Colombia (which spanned over 750,000 km in 2024) would need to almost double to meet rising demand and integrate variable renewables, calling for annual grid investments to rise to USD 4.2 bn by 2050.⁵5