What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Decarbonising the power sector

In 2024, Colombia’s power sector accounted for 11% of the country’s total emissions (or 21.6 MtCO₂). In 2023, Colombia’s power mix largely relied on hydro (65%), followed by fossil gas (16%) and coal (10%). Oil played a marginal role, while solar reached roughly 1.5%. Colombia has taken decisive steps to enhance access to clean cooking and electricity, both standing at more than 90% in 2024.1

The energy transition in Colombia’s power sector has gained momentum, particularly in solar power deployment and transmission infrastructure. According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MinEnergía), the country aims to install 6 GW of renewables capacity by the end of 2026 (Plan 6 GWplus). By the end of February 2026, Colombia has already installed over 4 GW of renewable energy capacity (solar, wind, hydropower) with 2.58 GW of operational projects and 1.48 GW under testing.2 In 2025, 75 generation projects and 40 transmission projects came online. Of the new generation projects, 68 were solar plants, two were hydroelectric, and five were thermal.3

More than 16 GW of wind and solar projects have been approved by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) between 2023- 2033. 13.5 GW are solar projects and 2.8 GW are wind projects. Importantly, the National Development Plan 2022–2026 promotes the concept of energy communities as a key pillar for energy democratisation, aiming to establish 20,000 by 2026, providing the opportunity to citizens to participate in the energy transition and benefit from it.4

Colombia's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

Based on the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, aligning with 1.5°C would see power demand grow by 125% (compared to 2023) by 2035 without an increase in emissions due to a fossil fuel phase-out. The increase in demand for electricity is primarily covered by solar and wind while the role of hydropower shrinks in relative term, thereby reducing the vulnerability of the sector to drought. Hydropower generation projected to fluctuate at around 45-60 TWh annually until 2070, not far from its historical levels. Colombia would benefit from accelerated deployment of wind and solar. However, hydropower assets can remain key for storage and flexibility for renewables-based power systems. Despite the major increase in demand, total primary energy remains broadly stable compared to 2023 levels. This is due to the substitution of the inherently inefficient nature of fossil fuels – when coal, oil and gas are burned to create electricity or motion, a large amount of their energy is wasted as heat. Electrification, on the other hand, provides energy services with near 100% efficiency (and in the case of heat pumps, above 100% efficiency). Electrification technologies are around two to four times more efficient than their fossil counterparts. Electrifying the energy system can reduce the scale of energy supply needed, even while meeting a growing demand for energy services.

A 1.5°C compatible grid would see solar become the main driver of Colombia’s power sector, meeting additional demand and pushing fossil fuels out of the system by 2035. In the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, emissions are projected to peak in 2025 reaching net zero emissions by 2035. Negative CO2 emissions from 2035 onwards are supported by CDR technologies, which are used in the HPA to achieve a sustained post-peak temperature decline. By 2050, demand grows by more than 500% (compared to 2023) with solar accounting for almost 80% of generation. Hydropower and wind would largely cover the rest, while hydrogen contributes a small share. In energy systems with high shares of wind and solar, hydropower installations can provide valuable storage and balancing services.

Timely grid optimisation and expansion is a key enabling factor of Colombia’s electrification process as well as facilitating additional renewable capacity. It is important to stress that to move into this direction, additional investments in grid expansion and modernisation, as well as storage and demand flexibility should be prioritised to avoid curtailments and further boost renewables penetration. According to the International Energy Agency, the electricity grid in Colombia (which spanned over 750,000 km in 2024) would need to almost double to meet rising demand and integrate variable renewables, calling for annual grid investments to rise to USD 4.2 bn by 2050.5

Colombia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Investments

Colombia’s energy transition continues to gain momentum, in line with the HPA scenario. In 2023, Colombia’s installed renewable capacity reached 14.3 GW, with the vast majority being hydropower, with less than 1 GW of solar capacity. By the end of February 2026, Colombia added over 4 GW of renewable energy capacity (solar, wind, hydropower) with 2.58 GW of operational projects and 1.48 GW under testing.6 In 2025, 75 generation projects and 40 transmission projects came online. Of the new generation projects, 68 were solar plants, two were hydroelectric, and five were thermal.7 This trend aligns well with the projections of the Highest Possible Ambition Scenario (HPA), where solar PV is expected to drive the country’s transition. An additional 16 GW of wind (2.8 GW) and solar (13.5 GW) capacity have been approved for construction between 2023-2033.

Colombia's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

Dimension

  • Graph description

    Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time based on the HPA scenario.

    Methodology

In Colombia, investment in renewable capacity is front-loaded – by 2030 Colombia’s total renewable capacity increases 4-fold to reach 60GW, with solar capacity accounting for 78% of additions, reaching 47GW, Hydropower becomes the second most important electricity source with roughly 12GW, while wind rises to almost 2GW by 2030.

This translates to investments of roughly USD 5 bn annually from 2026 until 2030, with USD 4 bn (80%) dedicated to solar. Investments in renewable capacity peak at an average USD 7.5bn annually between 2031-2040, solar continues to dominate with more than USD 6 bn in investment annually.

Investment in clean energy in Colombia was around UDS 765 million in 2024, which translates to an increase of around 109% from USD 366 million in 2023. However, this is below 2022 levels where investment peaked at USD 1.23 bn.8 To align current renewable generation investments with the HPA scenario, investment would need to increase four-fold between now and 2030 and almost seven-fold by 2040.

By 2040, the total installed capacity would climb to 254 GW, with 236 GW of solar capacity. By 2050, Colombia could reach 427 GW capacity for renewables with solar accounting for 400 GW. According to the HPA, the overall renewables investment needs for Colombia to align with 1.5°C over the period 2026-2050 amounts to USD 150 bn (solar investments account for USD 120 bn representing 80% of the total investment needs).

The investment figures presented here focus exclusively on generation capacities (solar and wind) and therefore reflect only part of the overall system transformation. A fully decarbonised power system requires substantial additional investments in grid infrastructure, storage, and system flexibility. Transmission and distribution expansion, battery storage deployment, and system digitalisation are critical to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy and ensure system reliability. These additional investments can significantly increase total system costs but are necessary to enable the transition.

Timely grid optimisation and expansion is a key enabling factor of Colombia’s electrification process as well as facilitating additional renewable capacity. It is important to stress that to move in this direction, additional investments in grid expansion and modernisation, as well as storage and demand flexibility should be prioritised to avoid curtailments and further boost renewables penetration. The electricity grid in Colombia (which spanned over 750,000 km in 2024) would need to almost double to meet rising demand and integrate variable renewables, requiring annual grid investments to rise to USD 4.2 bn by 2050.9

The 6GW Plus program is a solid foundation, but further effort is required to transform the power system, supporting a rapid electrification of end-use sectors. Transitioning away from fossil fuels could free up fiscal space to accelerate the transition. The government estimates the fiscal weight of covering accumulated fuel stabilisation debts required a massive allocation of roughly USD 6.3bn – equivalent to 1.7% of Colombia's total GDP in 2023.10 This is higher than the average annual required capacity investments between now and 2030 under the HPA (USD 4.8 bn) and directly comparable with the required annual renewable investments between 2031-2040 (USD 7.3 – 7.5 bn). Significant public funds are being used to stabilise volatile, expensive fossil fuels, which could be used to align Colombia’s climate ambition with 1.5ºC. Colombia would benefit from redirecting this significant fiscal burden towards the transformation of the energy system and the electrification of end-use sectors, avoiding those costs in the future.

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from 1.5°C pathway based on the HPA scenario for Colombia

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Power sector decarbonised by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
210
88
1
-8
-7
-4
-2
2035
Relative to reference year in %
-58%
-100%
-104%
-103%
-102%
-101%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of unabated coal
%
10
2
0
0
0
0
0
Share of unabated gas
%
16
6
1
0
0
0
0
Share of renewable energy
%
66
89
97
97
98
98
98

The HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 
All values are rounded

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