What is Botswana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The transport sector is the biggest consumer of energy and has the highest share of total final energy consumption in Botswana (around 45% in 2019).1 The sector was responsible for about 2.4 MtCO₂e, or 8% of Botswana’s total emissions in 2015, with road transport being the largest source of emissions within the sector.2 Transport in Botswana is entirely powered by imported petroleum fuels, with the sector consuming 38% of all imported petroleum products in 2015.3
Botswana's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Botswana would need to reduce the direct annual CO₂ emissions from the transport sector from 2 MtCO₂ in 2019 to 1 MtCO₂ by 2040, and fully decarbonise the sector by 2047-2050. This can be achieved through a rapid electrification, with the share of electricity growing from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% in 2030, and 25-42% by 2050. Hydrogen and biofuels could also play a role in the decarbonisation of the sector. The share of biofuels could increase from 0% in 2019 to 2-11% in 2030, and 10-62% by 2050.
Some scenarios indicate that the share of oil in the transport sector could be reduced to 0% by 2050, while others indicate that it could reduce to between 5-20%. All scenarios indicate that direct CO₂ emissions from the sector would have to peak around 2030.
Currently, Botswana’s main initiative for reducing emissions from this sector is to increase the proportion of the population using public transport to 50% by 2030.4 The Government of Botswana estimates that this measure will result in an emissions reduction of 1.35 MtCO₂e.5 The country also has an ongoing integrated transport project worth USD 385.2 million financed by the World Bank, but the mitigation potential of this project is unclear.6
Botswana also articulated several desired outcomes in its 2011 National Integrated Transport Policy. These included facilitating a shift to public and rail transportation over private road transport, reducing harmful emissions from the sector by 20% in 2025 and 30% by 2036, and achieving a 10% increase in the share of renewable energy in the sector every decade.7 The extent to which these initiatives have been realised is unclear, but Botswana should seek to accelerate measures such as the use of public and rail transport, and facilitate uptake of electric and biofuel-powered vehicles.
Botswana's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Botswana
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2
|
2 to
2
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2047 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-27 to
-14%
|
-62 to
-62%
|
-100 to
-85%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
6 to
21
|
17 to
36
|
25 to
42
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
11
|
4 to
59
|
10 to
62
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
23
|
34 to
52
|
54 to
56
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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