What is Botswana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Botswana’s power sector is overwhelmingly dominated by fossil fuels – mostly coal. Solar, biogas, and biodiesel sources contribute only around 0.1-1% to the national power mix (as of 2019).1,2 99.7-99.9% of the power supply in 2015 was produced from coal.3,4 The remaining power demand is met by importing petroleum products from Southern African countries to further supply thermal power stations.5
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the country will need to rapidly and extensively reduce its reliance on coal from almost 100% in 2019 to being fully phased out of Botswana’s power sector by around 2030. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to drop from 1260 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to between 210 to 450 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, and be at zero by 2040 at the latest. In other words, carbon intensity would need to be cut by at least 35% by 2030.
The share of renewable energy in the power sector would also need to increase rapidly, from almost 0% in 2019 to 43-69% in 2030. By 2050, renewable energy sources could contribute 99-100% of the power share. This could be facilitated by the introduction of sustainable biomass energy, which, depending on the scenario, could contribute up to 50% of the power mix between 2030-2040.
These pathways stand in contrast with Botswana’s current energy goals. But Botswana aims to generate only 200 MW of renewable energy out of the total 1400 MW projected to be produced in 2025.6 This would be equivalent to only a 14.28% share of renewable energy in the national power mix. The country has explicitly articulated its aim to have 15% of its energy mix supplied from renewables by 2030, and up to 50% by 2036.7,8 These are well below the required share of renewable energy needed to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways.
The country aims to boost its coal production and to increase its coal capacities in the coming years, with a current pipeline of 2.8 GW planned to reduce its power imports from South Africa mostly due to the demand from its diamond industry.
The planned and operational solar power stations, alongside the biogas plants proposed for construction by 2030 as part of Botswana’s Third National Communication, also only amount to around 219 MW of renewable energy capacity.9 The country has also indicated its intention to introduce fossil gas capacities, which may supply about 20% of the energy mix by 2040.10
When combined with the plans to increase coal mining and electricity generation capacities — seen through the awarding of three coal plant generation licenses in 2020 — Botswana currently falls well short of 1.5°C compatible pathways for the power sector.11 Upscaling coal activities and seeking to introduce fossil gas capacities will risk creating high-cost stranded assets that will require a more aggressive phase-out of fossil fuels in the coming decades.
Botswana's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of Botswana’s power sector would need to reduce from 1260 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to zero by between 2026 to 2040 to be 1.5°C compatible. This will be driven by the complete phase-out of coal from the power mix by around 2030, with renewable energy contributing 99-100% of the national power mix by 2050.
The power sector decarbonisation will almost exclusively be driven by the uptake of renewable energy, with solar power, wind energy, and biogas-to-energy plants currently offering the greatest upscaling potential.12,13,14 Sustainable biomass energy may also support in facilitating the phase-out of coal.
However, Botswana’s intentions to continue pursuing coal mining for domestic power generation and international exports, as well as its intentions to introduce natural gas to the energy mix, put the country at risk of significant carbon lock-in and subsequent high-value stranded assets in the power sector, while also rendering the sector increasingly difficult to decarbonise, complicating the country’s route to being 1.5°C compatible.15,16
Botswana's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Botswana to be on the order of approximately USD 0.01 to 1.3 billion by 2030 and approximately USD 0.01 to 1.8 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Botswana's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Botswana
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
1258
|
-214 to
448
|
-405 to
1
|
-366 to
0
|
2026 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-117 to
-64%
|
-132 to
-100%
|
-129 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
100
|
0 to
47
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
0
|
43 to
69
|
68 to
98
|
99 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
100
|
19 to
54
|
0 to
11
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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