What is Botswana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Botswana’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2039-2048, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 1 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 0 MtCO₂e by 2050 at the latest.

All scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions should peak around 2025-2030, followed by a gradual or steep (depending upon the scenario) decline. This decline would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy supply from 29% in 2019 to 74-75% by 2050. Some scenarios also suggest that biofuels and, to a lesser extent, hydrogen, would start to replace some of the oil and coal that currently supply 70% of the industry sector’s energy. These new sources could be introduced as early as 2030-2040. To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would have to increase from 29% in 2019 to 74-95% by 2050.

At 0.05 MtCO₂e in 2019, Botswana’s emissions from industrial processes are already negligible. Most scenarios suggest that these emissions will remain relatively stable at their current level until 2050, while one scenario suggests that Botswana could achieve zero process-related emissions by 2040.

To date, Botswana continues to invest significantly in coal energy. This includes awarding three coal plant generation licenses in 2020, the construction of a mine with an annual production capacity of 4.5 million tonnes, and the development of a USD 2.5 billion coal-to-liquids plant with a daily production capacity of 12,000 barrels of gasoline and diesel.⁴4^,55 Such investments, especially in comparison to the significantly lower planned addition of renewable energy capacity, could extend the industry sector’s reliance on fossil fuels, thus hampering the sector’s decarbonisation trajectory and consistency with 1.5°C pathways.