Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its NDC, Botswana expressed a single target of reducing emissions by 15% compared to 2010 levels by 2030. Botswana’s NDC only covers the energy sector, waste and agricultural emissions. Enteric fermentation emissions, which plays a significant role in agricultural emissions, is excluded from the NDC target coverage.¹

1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathways would require Botswana’s emissions to be reduced by 46-57% relative to 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF. This translates to total national emissions between 10-13 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF.

It should be noted that historical datasets indicate significantly high variations in the historical emissions for Botswana. As a result, the base year chosen may have a significant effect on the resulting emissions, and subsequently the emission reduction target chosen by a country.²

While Botswana identifies several mitigation actions in its First Biennial Report to achieve the targeted 15% reduction, the country will have to significantly expand and accelerate its interventions for alignment with a 1.5°C compatible trajectory.

The implementation of Botswana’s domestic emissions pathway could be made possible with and through international support to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. While Botswana’s NDC does not specify the level of reductions requiring financial support and the level of reductions it aims to reach domestically, it states the need for international support.

Botswana's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

To date, Botswana has not submitted a long-term low emissions development strategy. Our analysis shows that the country would need to emit no more than 7 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF) to be 1.5°C compatible. This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of 69% below 2010 levels.³

The energy sector would be the first to decarbonise in some scenarios. The remaining emissions would overwhelmingly be from the agriculture sector, with some scenarios indicating minor contributions from the sectors of waste and industrial processes.

On the road to net zero, Botswana would need to balance its remaining emissions through reducing deforestation to increase its land sinks or carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS, which have risks and are accompanied with extensive up-front research and financing costs. As part of efforts to enhance mitigation action in the land sector, the country would need to reduce deforestation and wildfires, and transition from use of traditional biofuels to electrification.⁴

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Botswana primary energy is mostly dominated by fossil fuels, with oil and coal accounting for close to 80% of the total primary energy in 2019.

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a steep reduction of fossil fuels, reaching around 11% of the fuel mix in 2040, and a complete phase-out by 2050. With residential, transportation, and industrial uses accounting for the majority of energy consumption in the country, these sectors represent the greatest potential for achieving significant decarbonisation.⁵

This is possible with the rapid uptake of renewable energies, which could make up between 68-98% of the energy mix by 2040. While 20% of Botswana’s energy mix was renewable in 2017, the vast majority of this is from traditional biomass — particularly wood-fuel — which has negative health impacts and sustainability implications.⁶ Botswana’s uptake of renewable energy has the potential to facilitate a transition from traditional biofuels to electrification, with a key focus on rural areas.⁷

Lower penetration of renewables would, for Botswana, potentially require the development and upscaling of carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDRs), such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Some models indicate that between 18-30% of the energy mix could be sourced from BECCS between 2040-2050.

These technologies are currently unavailable in Botswana, and would require high up-front costs. These could be avoided by implementing policies to rapidly increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix and to reduce land-use emissions, and maintain and enhance the role of LULUCF sector — and forests and grasslands in particular — as a significant national carbon sink.⁸

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Botswana. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	13	13	11 10 to 13	7 6 to 9	5 4 to 7
Relative to reference year in %			-16% -25 to -5%	-46% -55 to -35%	-62% -69 to -44%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	7	9	6 4 to 6	2 1 to 3	1 -0 to 1	2059 2048 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %			-20% -39 to -17%	-72% -90 to -61%	-90% -102 to -84%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019). ↩
It should also be noted that there are significant discrepancies between the base year emissions expressed in the NDC and in historical datasets. The NDC indicates 2010 emissions as 8.3 MtCO₂e, while historical datasets puts the value at 27 MtCO₂e. The NDC, however, does not account for significant sources of CH₄ emissions from the agriculture sector, and aims to realise its mitigations from the energy sector exclusively. To this end, we have interpreted the baseline indicated in the NDC as being comparable to the energy sector only, as opposed to being representative of the entire emissions baseline for 2010. The calculations provided in these sections therefore rely upon the baseline emissions indicated in the historical datasets for Botswana, as opposed to the NDC. ↩
It should also be noted that there are significant discrepancies between the base year emissions expressed in the NDC and in historical datasets. The NDC indicates 2010 emissions as 8.3 MtCO₂e, while historical datasets puts the value at 27 MtCO₂e. The NDC, however, does not account for significant sources of CH₄ emissions from the agriculture sector, and aims to realise its mitigations from the energy sector exclusively. To this end, we have interpreted the baseline indicated in the NDC as being comparable to the energy sector only, as opposed to being representative of the entire emissions baseline for 2010. The calculations provided in these sections therefore rely upon the baseline emissions indicated in the historical datasets for Botswana, as opposed to the NDC. ↩
Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019). ↩
Adedoyin, A. et al. Botswana Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories for Biennial Update Report (BUR). (2016). ↩
Adedoyin, A. et al. Botswana Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories for Biennial Update Report (BUR). (2016). ↩
Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019). ↩
Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019). ↩

What is Botswana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Botswana's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Botswana's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Botswana's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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