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What is Tanzaniaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition gap

Tanzaniaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

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Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−25%
NDC
−11%
Ambition gap
−14%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Summary

In its updated NDC (from July 2021), Tanzania aims to reduce GHG emissions by 30-35% by 2030 below BAU, equivalent to around 0-7% below 2014 levels including LULUCF.1 This translates in emissions of 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.12

1 United Republic of Tanzania. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (Vice President’s Office, Union and Environment, 2021).

2 United Republic of Tanzania. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). (2015).

3 Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority. Electricity Infrastructure. (2021).

4 United Republic of Tanzania (URT). National Climate Change Response Strategy (2021-2026). (2021).

5 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), T. National Climate Change Statistics Report. (2019).

6 IEA. Tanzania Country Profile. Key Energy Statistics.(2020).

7 United Republic of Tanzania. National Five Year Development Plan 2016/17-2020/21: Nurturing Industrialization for Economic Transformation and Human Development. (2016).

8 United Republic of Tanzania. National Energy Policy. (Ministry of Energy and Minerals, 2015).

9 Irene Garcia, Anna Leidreiter, Joachim Fünfgelt, Sixbert Mwanga & Msololo Onditi. Policy Roadmap for 100% Renewable Energy and Poverty Eradication in Tanzania. (2017).

10 United Republic of Tanzania. Voluntary National Review (VNR) 2019. (2019).

11 IRENA. Innovation Landscape Brief:Pay-as-you-go models. (2020).

12 See assumptions here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/staging/methodology/#tza-ndc

13 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 11-38% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand. This is critical considering that both Tanzania’s initial and updated NDC are fully conditional.1,2

Tanzania had as of March 2022 not submitted a long-term decarbonisation strategy.

1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reduce its GHG emissions by 20-51% below 2015 levels by 2050 or 42-69 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.13

The land and agriculture sectors overall are the main contributors to GHG emissions and would be key in the decarbonisation of Tanzania’s economy and society. Decarbonising the energy sector would also need to be prioritised, as its currently dominated by traditional biomass use (80% of total energy consumption) (mostly for cooking and heating).

Power

Key power sector benchmarks

Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS

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As of 2019, just under 36% of power generated in Tanzania is from renewables. Natural gas dominates the power sector at 55% while oil accounts for 7%.3

In May 2021, Tanzania and Uganda signed an agreement of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline signalling continued investment in fossil fuels.

While the country is aiming to increase the exploitation of its natural gas reserve, 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that fossil fuels would need to be phased out by 2038 to avoid carbon lock-in and face the risk of stranded assets.

With a strong increase in renewable energies reaching 88-99% share in the power mix by 2030, the sector could achieve full decarbonisation by late 2030s.

Footnotes