What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Industry accounted for a quarter of Japan’s GDP in 2020, most notably the manufacturing sector which was responsible for 20% of GDP. Japan’s largest exports are general machinery and transport equipment.1 When considering both industrial energy use and industrial process emissions, Japan’s industrial sector accounted for 30% of total emissions excluding LULUCF in 2022.
Japan's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
The Japanese Business Federation, Keidanren, plays an important role in decarbonising Japan’s industrial sector. “Challenge Zero” was launched in 2020 under which companies and organisations pledged to achieve net zero by 2050, including the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, which is Japan’s largest industrial source of energy-related CO2 emissions.2
While electricity already met 36% of the sector’s energy needs in 2022, fossil fuels still provided a combined total of 60%. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, would achieve the deepest cuts in both direct CO2 emissions and sectoral energy intensity by reducing fossil fuel supply to 38% by 2030. Japan would need to rapidly reduce its reliance on fossil fuels in this sector to achieve this.
The government has set targets for domestic hydrogen production of 3 million tonnes by 2030 and approximately 20 million tonnes by 2050.3 By 2030 hydrogen could contribute to industry’s energy mix by 0.4-3.8%, rising by 2050 to a range of 1.6-21%, depending on the selected pathway. The Deep Electrification pathway would see 10% hydrogen in the energy mix.
Japan's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Japan's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Japan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
184
|
39 to
67
|
18 to
57
|
3 to
34
|
-2 to
15
|
2039 to
2052
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-64%
|
-90 to
-69%
|
-98 to
-82%
|
-101 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
36
|
33 to
42
|
36 to
44
|
40 to
56
|
38 to
61
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
40
|
59 to
62
|
65 to
67
|
76 to
82
|
83 to
93
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-