What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Bangladesh’s 2021 NDC was updated to increase ambition for both its conditional and unconditional targets.1 The unconditional target aims for a 6.7% reduction of GHG emissions below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030 including LULUCF and the conditional target aims for a 15.1% reduction. For comparability to our analysed pathways and when excluding LULUCF, the conditional target is equivalent to 86% above 2012 levels. The updated targets cover all sectors, with most of the reduction coming from the energy sector (about 95%), while the previous NDC only covered the power, industry and transport sectors.2

In September 2025, Bangladesh submitted its 2035 target, an economy wide target of a 6.39% unconditional and 13.92% conditional reduction below BAU, with emissions projected to peak around 2029–2030 and decline thereafter.

1.5°C compatible pathways would see Bangladesh reach emissions levels of 186 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF. This equates to a 5% increase in GHG emissions above 2012 levels by 2030. Bangladesh would need international support to be aligned with 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Bangladesh's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways for Bangladesh indicate that the country would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 48% below 2012 levels or to 92 MtCO2e/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF. Remaining emissions, mostly from agriculture and waste, could then be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as strengthened sinks from the land sector.

As of September 2025, Bangladesh has not submitted a long-term strategy. In 2023, Bangladesh released its Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP). The plan includes a net zero scenario by 2050 for energy-based GHGs, which indicates that energy and environmental policies will need to be strengthened to achieve this goal, but at the same time the scenario shows only a 5.4% share of renewable energy in primary energy in 2050.3 However, the IEPMP also mentioned that, given Bangladesh’s development, 2070 is likely to be a more realistic year to reach net zero. The proposed budget for FY26 has reiterated reaching zero carbon as a key pillar of Bangladesh’s overall progress. However, it falls short of providing concrete actions to support this goal, remaining largely aspirational.4

Bangladesh's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bangladesh. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2012
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
178
231
144 to 186
121 to 161
94 to 138
71 to 92
Relative to reference year in %
-19 to 4%
-32 to -10%
-47 to -22%
-60 to -48%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
70
116
49 to 75
27 to 65
6 to 45
-14 to 11
Relative to reference year in %
-30 to 7%
-61 to -7%
-91 to -36%
-120 to -84%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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