What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Power sector in 2030

Senegal’s power sector relies heavily on fossil fuel, mainly oil, in power generation with a share of almost 90% in 2017 and the remaining share composed of renewables.1

1.5°C compatible pathways demonstrate that power sector carbon intensity could decline from 850 gCO₂/kWh in 2017 to –360-20 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 89% in 2017 to 3-5% by 2030. This would be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including solar, wind, hydro and modern biomass) in the power mix from a share of 11% in 2017 to 94–97% by 2030.

The government plan, Priority Action Plan 2 (PAP2) (2019-2023) as part of the PSE (Plan Sénégal Émergent), targets an increase in the renewables in the energy mix to 29.2% by 2023 from 17.23% in 2017.2

Senegal's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

Dimension

In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.

  • Graph description

    Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.

    Methodology

    Data References

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

Senegal’s power sector could reach net zero emissions by 2035.3 This would require a rapid phase out of oil, coal, and gas from the power mix with renewable energies contributing to 100% of the national power mix by 2040. Some of our analysed pathways show the penetration of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS in the power mix, though the cost of these technologies make it an unlikely uptake option for Senegal. Higher uptake of renewable energies would reduce the need for such technologies.

However, Senegal’s NDC states that the exploitation of its oil and gas reserves is planned to start in 2022 having made the discovery of major offshore natural gas reserves between 2015 and 2017.4,5 As gas and coal already play a negligible role in Senegal’s fossil fuel share in the power mix, investing in gas-to-power plans would lock in a carbon intensive pathway and risk stranded assets.

While the urban electrification rate was approximately 93.6% in 2018, the rural rate was 42.3%.6 Thus, expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply are additional challenges Senegal faces in transforming its power sector. In 2018, traditional biomass (fuelwood and charcoal) accounted for 82% of total residential energy consumption of 1.246 Mtoe.7 Promoting electric transportation and cooking technologies that run on clean energy would significantly curb household biomass combustion and reduce fossil fuel usage.

To improve energy security and boost people’s confidence on electric cooking and transportation technologies, the government will need to expand and improve grid accessibility and load capacity, invest in hydropower and solar plants with energy storage systems, diversify its energy mix by establishing large scale solar and wind projects, and provide subsidies and lower taxation on clean technologies. These substantial changes in the energy sources and infrastructure require holistic cross-sectoral policy packages.

Senegal's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Investments

Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy

Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Senegal to be on the order of USD 0.1 to 5 billion by 2030 and 0.1 to 8 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.

Demand shifting towards the power sector

The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.

Senegal's renewable electricity investments

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

  • Graph description

    Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Senegal

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
670
-108 to 55
-268 to 0
-121 to -60
2025 to 2038
Relative to reference year in %
-116 to -92%
-140 to -100%
-118 to -109%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
per cent
15
4 to 5
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of unabated gas
per cent
1
0 to 1
0 to 0
0 to 0
2020 to 2021
Share of renewable energy
per cent
8
91 to 93
99 to 100
100 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
92
7 to 9
0 to 1
0 to 0

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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