What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2023

1.5°C compatible pathways

Senegal’s 2020 NDC targets a conditional GHG emission reduction of 29.5% below business as usual levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).1 This translates in emissions reductions of 24-59% above 2010 by 2030 or around 28-36 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF).2

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Senegal’s domestic emissions reductions would need to be 1-25% below 2010 levels or 16-22 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF) by 2030.

With international support, Senegal’s domestic emissions pathway will be implemented to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.

Senegal's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

To be 1.5°C pathway compatible, Senegal will need to reduce its GHG emissions to 39% below 2010 levels by 2050 or approximately 13 MtCO₂e/y by 2050 excluding LULUCF and CO₂ emissions excluding LULUCF reduced to approximately 78% below 2010 levels or 2 MtCO₂e/y by 2050. Senegal has lost half of its forest since 1960 in part due to firewood harvesting.3 Reforestation and the reduction of deforestation could also contribute to Senegal’s forest as a carbon sink.

Residual emissions from harder to abate sectors such as agriculture, which constitute almost half of national emission, will need to be balanced by carbon dioxide removal approaches.

Senegal's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

1.5°C compatible pathways show that the share of fossil fuel in Senegal’s primary energy mix will need to decrease from 62% in 2017 to around 30% in 2040, and less than 20% by 2050.

To enable emissions reductions, Senegal will need to considerably scale up its renewable energy supply. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show a rapid uptake of renewables from around 38% in 2017 to 65% of the energy mix by 2040, and 71% by 2050 which could be implemented through Senegal’s huge underexploited renewable energy potential for solar, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy.4 However, the energy sector is expected to grow significantly under business as usual and will represent more than 50% of the country’s overall emissions in 2022 mostly driven by increased energy demand as well as the planned exploitation of oil and gas starting in 2022.5

In 2017, 97% of renewable energy was traditional biomass such as wood and charcoal, which have negative health and sustainability implications. There will need to be a shift away from traditional biomass to other renewables such as solar, wind and hydro through increasing electrification rate of end-use sectors and access to clean cooking options to reduce the use of traditional biomass.

Senegal aims to provide universal access to electricity by 2025 which provides an opportunity for the country to shift away from traditional biomass sources to renewables.6 Renewables comes with co-benefits and will steer emissions reductions in the LULUCF sector, by reducing deforestation.

Senegal's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Senegal. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2010
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
22
27
18
16 to 22
14
13 to 16
13
11 to 16
Relative to reference year in %
-19%
-25 to -1%
-34%
-39 to -26%
-39%
-49 to -29%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
7
11
8
6 to 9
4
2 to 6
2
1 to 5
2068
Relative to reference year in %
4%
-19 to 18%
-44%
-74 to -17%
-78%
-90 to -32%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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