What is Qatar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
With unprecedented economic growth, electricity generation and consumption have increased four-fold in Qatar over the past two decades. Almost all of the country’s electricity is generated from gas-fired power plants, with a negligible share coming from solar PV and biofuels.1 QatarEnergy, which is the state-owned company responsible for national oil and gas in Qatar, as per Prince Decree 2/2017, has developed a Sustainability Strategy with a target to add 2–4 GW of renewable energy by 2030.2 Qatar has provided no plans to phase out fossil fuels from its power system.
Derived 1.5°C compatible pathways require Qatar to increase its share of renewable energy (including BECCS) in power generation to 8–15% by 2030 and 75–99% by 2050.
Phasing out gas-fired power plants from the power system between 2040 and 2049 would ensure Qatar’s alignment with Paris Agreement compatible pathways. The decline in the share of gas needs to be complemented by a sharp increase in the share of renewable energy in the power mix.
In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the power sector could be fully decarbonised between 2040 and 2046.
Qatar's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
-
Qatar's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Qatar to be on the order of USD 0.2 to 2.3 billion by 2030 and 0.1 to 11.2 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR’ reliance pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, particularly transport. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Qatar's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Qatar
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
479
|
331 to
367
|
1 to
76
|
-53 to
-31
|
2040 to
2046
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-31 to
-23%
|
-100 to
-84%
|
-111 to
-107%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
100
|
85 to
87
|
0 to
18
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2049
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
0
|
8 to
15
|
62 to
81
|
75 to
99
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
100
|
85 to
88
|
0 to
18
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-