What is Qatar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

2030 Ambition

Qatar aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 25% below a BAU scenario by 2030 but does not specify what that BAU scenario is.1 To estimate the level of ambition implied by this target, we construct a BAU range based on the historical ten-year trend of Qatar’s emissions for the upper range and a downscaled pathway that reflects factors such as falling costs of renewables for the lower range. We estimate a wide range of 147–213 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF for Qatar’s NDC target. To be 1.5°C compatible, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 53–59% below 2015 levels and reach a level of 78–90 MtCO₂e by 2030. While there is significant uncertainty in the formulation of Qatar’s target, our estimate places it well out of reach of 1.5°C.

While Qatar has adopted some sectoral policies, such as state-owned QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, they remain vague and lack detail in exactly what measures will be taken, and still promote the use of fossil gas.

Qatar's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long-term pathway

Qatar does not have a net zero emissions target. To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 90% below 2015 levels, reaching 20 MtCO₂e by 2050.

All 1.5°C pathways except the Low Energy Demand pathway show some use of carbon dioxide removal technologies in the energy system by 2040, and in some pathways the energy sector has net negative emissions by 2060.

Qatar's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

More than half of Qatar’s GHG emissions come from fuel combustion in the industry, power, and transport sectors.2 Nearly one-third of GHG emissions are fugitive emissions from oil and gas exploration. Clear and stringent policies are critical for the transformation of these sectors. An implementation of energy efficiency and process optimisation measures is crucial to reduce emissions from the energy sector in Qatar. To be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, Qatar would need to ramp up the uptake of renewable energy in its primary energy mix, reaching 4–7% by 2030 and 25–50% by 2050. Similarly, the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix would need to reach 8–15% by 2030 and 75–100% by 2050. At the same time, Qatar will need to phase out fossil fuels.

Qatar's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Qatar. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
193
196
81
78 to 90
35
30 to 38
18
14 to 20
Relative to reference year in %
-58%
-59 to -53%
-82%
-84 to -80%
-91%
-93 to -90%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
120
111
65
50 to 70
22
10 to 28
6
2 to 15
2070
Relative to reference year in %
-46%
-59 to -42%
-82%
-92 to -77%
-95%
-98 to -88%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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