What is Qatar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Energy-related emissions from the industry sector rose eight-fold between 1990 and 2019 reaching about 50 MtCO₂ in 2019.³3 At the same time, process-related emissions rose more than six-fold from 2 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 13 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, energy-related CO₂ emissions in Qatar’s industry sector would need to decline to 13 MtCO2 in 2030 and 3–4 MtCO₂ in 2050. The share of electricity in the industry sector would need to increase from 12% in 2019 to 18–19% in 2030, and 36–60% in 2050.

Currently, Qatar is dramatically ramping up fossil gas production and undercutting competitors to cement its status as one of the top LNG suppliers in the world with a huge expansion plan.⁴4 As part of its climate goals, under the state-owned petroleum company QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, the company outlines that it will take measures to reduce the carbon intensity of its LNG facilities by 25% and upstream operations by 15% compared to 2013 levels by 2030, partly by eliminating flaring and increasing the carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity of LNG operations.⁵5 However, the planned fossil gas expansion would lead to a rise in both energy and process-related emissions from the industry sector, raising the risk of asset stranding and undermining Qatar’s contribution to global efforts under the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5°C. While Qatar’s strategy relies heavily on capturing emissions through the use of CCS technologies, these are not currently available at scale, require high investment costs and are inherently risky.