According to Mozambique’s updated NDC, LULUCF is the largest contributor to national emissions by a significant margin, accounting for 70% of the 149 MtCO₂e emitted in 2019. This is followed by the energy and agriculture sectors, responsible for 12% of the 2019 emissions each. The Waste and Industry Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Sectors contributed the least to national emissions, collectively accounting for 4% of total national emissions.
Between 1990 and 2013, the IPPU sector experienced the largest annual growth in emissions at 26%, followed by waste (8%), energy (2%), agriculture (1.5%), and LULUCF (0.5%).
The country continues to experience deforestation rates of 0.5-1.5% per year, mainly due to timber extraction and agricultural conversion. This is imposing further constrains on the country’s extensive forest cover, which encompasses roughly 50% of the territory, and could further exacerbate LULUCF and agriculture related national emissions.
Lastly, with the discovery of significant natural gas reserves in 2010, Mozambique has been extensively developing its production and export capacities of the fossil fuel. This is demonstrated by the Mozambique LNG Project, which has seen over USD 20 billion invested in the resource off the coast of Northern Mozambique to tap into 65 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. It is also noteworthy that the lead operator of the project is the foreign multinational corporation Total Energies. Such projects will likely increase national emissions from the energy sector significantly, and lock the country in a high carbon future.