Through its updated NDC, Mozambique commits to a conditional emissions reduction of 40 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2025 cumulatively (excl. LULUCF). This would translate in emissions reaching 42 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or an 11% increase in emissions relative to 2015 levels (38 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2030.
While analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a wide range of potential emissions levels by 2030, they reflect the need for emissions levels to reach between 23-36 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions. This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of 2-14 MtCO₂e/yr, or between 6-38% below 2015 levels.
It should be noted, however, that by the country’s own declaration, the targets stated in the NDC are estimates with a significant level of uncertainty, and will be updated based on results from the 2022 Biennial Update Report (BUR).
It is also noteworthy that afforestation-related emissions and mitigation are not accounted for in the NDC. By some estimates, LULUCF is the largest emitting sector in the country.2 Excluding this sector may therefore significantly alter Mozambique’s mitigation target, and its subsequent trajectory in relation to the Paris Agreement and 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Long term pathway
In its updated NDC, Mozambique articulates that it has received support from the NDC Partnership – Climate Action Enhancement Package to develop its Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (2020-2050). However, this is currently not publicly available.
By 2050, the country would need to reduce its emissions to between 18-26 MtCO₂e to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, equivalent to a 32-54% reduction in emissions relative to 2015 levels. Analysed scenarios show the energy sector decarbonising first, between 2040 and 2060, while others show the IPPU sector being the first to fully decarbonise by around 2040. In all scenarios, agriculture persists as a significant source of emissions beyond 2050, while the waste sector is also a minor contributor in certain scenarios.
Efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating the country’s commitments to limit deforestation and restore forested lands, could create effective national carbon sinks. This can further be driven by reducing traditional biomass consumption and subsequently provide negative emissions allowing to balance its remaining emissions in the long-term.