What is Costa Rica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
While power generated within the country is already fully based on renewables, to meet energy demand, the country still uses a small amount of imported oil.1 While Costa Rica has already achieved, 100% renewable power generation periodically in the past, data from 2019 shows it fell short, reaching 99% of power generated renewably. The country has set a target to reach 100% renewable power generation by 2030, with little specification regarding the sources of renewable power.
Concrete targets for diversified sources of renewable power can ensure that Costa Rica can consistently meet 100% renewable power and stay on track with 1.5°C pathways. Currently, the largest source of renewable power generation in Costa Rica is hydropower.2 In order to strengthen energy security, sources of power generation may need a more even distribution among hydropower, biomass, solar, wind or green hydrogen to even out high and low periods and protect against future climate variability.
Costa Rica's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Costa Rica is already incredibly close to achieving full decarbonisation of power generation from renewable sources, such as hydropower, solar and wind. It produced 99% of its power supply from renewables in 2019 and already reached 100% renewable power generation periodically in past years, such as in 2017. This indicates that the country will have no difficulty in reaching its existing target to reach 100% renewable power production by 2030.
As Costa Rica benefits already from an almost completely decarbonised power supply, this is the opportunity for the country to drive decarbonisation in its transport sector through increasing the uptake of electric vehicles in the country’s fleet.
Costa Rica's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Costa Rica to be on the order of USD 1 to 2 billion by 2030 and USD 1 to 4 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and/or growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Costa Rica's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Costa Rica
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
6
|
-8 to
0
|
-4 to
-1
|
-4 to
-3
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-240 to
-100%
|
-167 to
-125%
|
-172 to
-145%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
99
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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