Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Costa Rica has set an unconditional target in its 2020 NDC which translates to 11.9-12.5 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 excluding LULUCF,¹ or 10-14% below 2015 emission levels. Current policy projections show that if the country reaches the maximum potential of its current policies, it would be on track to meet its NDC.²

Costa Rica’s NDC is not conditional on international support, though Costa Rica has also highlighted the ‘need of financial support, technology transfer and capacity’ as an impact of the pandemic.³

Costa Rica could consider raising its ambition by adding a new target conditional on international support. Paris Agreement compatible emissions pathways would require emissions reductions of 18-41% below 2015 levels, equivalent to an absolute emissions limit of 8.5-11.7 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2030.

Costa Rica's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long-term pathway

Costa Rica has set a goal to reach net zero GHG emissions (including LULUCF) by 2050, indicating a projected sink of –5.5 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.

1.5°C compatible pathways would require Costa Rica to reach a level of remaining GHG emissions lower than 2 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050 (or 84% below 2015 levels).⁴ Costa Rica’s projected land sink indicates that the country is well positioned to balance its remaining emissions by 2050.

When excluding the contribution of land sinks, the main driver of negative emissions is the energy sector, where some models show already negative CO₂ emissions by 2040 from bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). This continues balancing ongoing emissions of methane and other non-CO₂ GHGs from the agriculture, industry and waste sectors.

The transport sector will play a key role in decarbonisation. If the use of fossil fuel vehicles continues past 2050, carbon dioxide removal approaches, including from the land sector, would be needed to counteract these emissions and keep Costa Rica compatible with 1.5°C pathways.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The transport sector has the biggest role to play in decarbonising Costa Rica’s energy system. While the power sector is already almost fully decarbonised, Costa Rica’s transport sector is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels and is the largest emitter of CO₂ emissions in the country.

1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reach net zero CO₂ emissions excluding LULUCF by 2040. This would require a large shift towards electrification of the transport sector. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a share of renewables in total primary energy share (TPES) between 56-80% by 2030 and 91-98% by 2050, with lower shares of renewables corresponding to higher reliance on negative emissions from technologies such as BECCS to compensate for ongoing fossil fuel emissions. However, this is very unlikely to happen in Costa Rica. In comparison, renewables made up only 51% of Costa Rica’s TPES in 2019.⁵ Only the scenario with the highest renewables penetration in TPES by 2050 completely avoids the use of BECCS.⁶

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Costa Rica. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	14	17	10 9 to 12	6 4 to 7	2 -3 to 6	2060
Relative to reference year in %			-30% -41 to -18%	-59% -69 to -52%	-84% -120 to -61%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	6	9	4 3 to 5	0 -1 to 1	-3 -7 to 0	2041 2038 to 2052
Relative to reference year in %			-35% -53 to -22%	-99% -112 to -83%	-141% -212 to -98%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Costa Rica. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Costa Rica: Current Policy Projections. (2020). ↩
Gobierno de Costa Rica. Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
International Energy Agency. IEA Country Profiles: Costa Rica. (2021). ↩
Least-cost pathways analysed here assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩

What is Costa Rica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Costa Rica's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long-term pathway

Costa Rica's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Costa Rica's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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