What is Democratic Republic of the Congo's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Power sector in 2030

The DRC’s power sector is quasi emissions-free because it almost exclusively uses hydropower.
DRC’s hydropower potential is huge, estimated at 100GW.1 However, the country was only exploiting about 3% of this capacity in 2017.2 In 2017, hydroelectricity accounted for 99% of the total national production of electricity with the remaining amount provided by a mix of biofuels and waste (0.3%), other renewable energy sources (0.1%), and fossil fuels, mostly oil (0.1%).3 While the country relies heavily on hydroelectricity, this comes along with a high environmental impact and can lead to water shortages.
The country’s electricity demand is growing along with increased electrification of end-use sectors. It is important to ensure that the increasing electricity generation remains carbon-free by scaling up renewables and avoiding any introduction of fossil fuels in the power mix.

The DRC has one of the lowest access-to-electricity rates in the world at 19% in 2019.4 Access is also unequally shared between urban and rural areas, 41% and 1%, respectively.5 The government aims to increase the overall electrification rate to 32% by 2030.6 The DRC’s power system is in a poor condition due to lack of funds and technical skills required to carry out proper maintenance of equipment.7 This challenge concerns also the DRC’s larger hydropower projects and new power lines for the transmission and distribution of electricity.8

Democratic Republic of the Congo's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

Dimension

In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.

  • Graph description

    Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.

    Methodology

    Data References

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

The DRC’s power sector is currently quasi emissions-free. Renewable energies, almost exclusively hydropower, contributes 100% of the national power mix. This makes the DRC’s power sector already aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways. However, this could change due to the government’s ambition to reinvigorate the country’s oil sector.

The government faces the challenge of expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply when transforming its power sector that is expected to experience more growth than any other sector.9 This challenge is compounded by the fact that the country’s hydroelectric production is at about one third of its total capacity and its electricity transmission network is in a poor condition.10 If these constraints are addressed, the DRC could become an electricity exporter through the Inga dam project and improve its energy security. However, relying heavily on hydropower comes along with a high environmental impact and can lead to water shortages.

In addition to investing in large scale hydropower plants, the growing demand for electricity could be met by investing in diversified renewables projects, in particular decentralised renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind. Potential for solar energy production and wind energy is estimated in the DRC to be of 70GW and 15 GW, respectively.11 Therefore, renewable energy solutions offer a low-cost option to overcome grid limitations and expand electricity access to the population in rural areas. At the current stage, fossil fuels play a negligible role in the DRC’s power mix. However, following the government’s plan to exploit sixteen oil blocks, investing in gas-to-power plants would lock in a carbon intensive pathway and risk stranded assets.12

Democratic Republic of the Congo's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Investments

Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy

Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Democratic Republic of the Congo to be on the order of USD 1 to 5 billion by 2030 and USD 2 to 13 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and/or growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.

Demand shifting towards the power sector

The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.

Democratic Republic of the Congo's renewable electricity investments

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

  • Graph description

    Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Democratic Republic of the Congo

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
0
-20 to 0
-17 to -5
-12 to -6
Relative to reference year in %
0 to 0%
0 to 0%
0 to 0%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of unabated coal
per cent
0
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of unabated gas
per cent
0
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of renewable energy
per cent
100
100 to 100
100 to 100
100 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
0
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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