What is Democratic Republic of the Congo's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
The DRC’s updated NDC is composed of a 19% conditional and 2% unconditional GHG emissions reduction target below BAU levels by 2030.1 The conditional target translates into an increase in emissions of 92% above 2015 by 2030, or 275 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF). The NDC provides general mitigation actions which are intended to contribute to quantified emissions reduction targets, but it lacks a quantified breakdown for each mitigation action. Actions are listed for the energy, agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors. No actions are listed for the industrial processes sector as its contribution to the DRC’s GHG emissions balance is minimal. The implementation of the DRC’s NDC is conditional on financial support, with an estimated cost of 48.68 billion USD of which 25.60 billion USD would be needed for mitigation measures.2
Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicates that the DRC would need to reduce emissions by 14% below 2015 levels or 124 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The LULUCF sector contributed 75% of the DRC’s total emissions in 2018, mainly driven by deforestation. When excluding LULUCF, emissions are predominantly driven by the waste sector, and mostly consist of methane (92% in 2018). The remaining share of emissions comes from the energy (5%) and agriculture (3%) sectors, when excluding LULUCF.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
As of January 2023, the DRC has not submitted its long-term strategy. To be consistent with 1.5°C compatible pathway, the DRC would need to cut its GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) by 9%–51% below 2015 levels by 2050.3 The most important sectors with substantial emissions reduction potential are LULUCF and the waste sector.
LULUCF emissions account for 75% of the country’s emissions (in 2018). In 2008, the DRC shifted from being a net carbon sink to a net carbon source.4 Without decisive action, the DRC could lose about 10% of its forest area by 2030 and 15–20% by 2050.5 However, with the right policies in place, the DRC’s immense forest cover of around 137.7 million ha (in 2020) could help the country become a carbon sink again.6,7
After LULUCF, the second most emitting sector is waste mostly driven by methane (CH₄) emissions, constituting the highest share (92% in 2018) of the country’s emissions, when excluding the LUUCF sector.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
The DRC’s primary energy mix consists mostly of traditional biomass (95%). Non-biomass renewables had a share of 3% in 2017, and oil 2%.8 The high share of traditional biomass is mostly due to the use of fuelwood and charcoal for domestic and industrial application which contributes to deforestation in the DRC.
1.5°C compatible pathways show that the share of non-biomass renewables in the DRC’s primary energy mix will need to scale up from 3% in 2017 to around 30% in 2040, and almost 50% by 2050. While the share of biomass decreases across time, it is also playing an important role in decarbonising primary energy, still present in some analysed scenarios with a 20–60% share in 2050. A shift away from traditional biomass towards a higher uptake of non-biomass renewables would reduce emissions while improving air quality and bringing related health benefits. This shift would also address negative sustainability implications which are linked to the use of traditional biomass, such as wood and charcoal.
Many of our analysed pathways show the penetration of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technologies in the energy mix. BECCS is currently not available at scale, and the cost of these technologies makes it an unlikely option to decarbonise the economy. The modelling used for this analysis also provides conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies resulting in greater reliance on technological carbon removals than if a faster transition to renewables was achieved.
Exploitation of the DRC’s significant hydropower resources combined with decentralised renewable energy sources could provide an alternative to the DRC’s heavy reliance on traditional biofuels and waste for energy. However, further developing hydropower requires significant financial investment, improved maintenance of infrastructure, and technical capacity building. The use of hydropower also has high environmental impacts and future climate change impacts on generation capacity will need to be considered in hydropower planning.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Democratic Republic of the Congo. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
143
|
185
|
124
87 to
153
|
113
79 to
143
|
116
70 to
131
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-14%
-40 to
7%
|
-21%
-45 to
-0%
|
-19%
-51 to
-8%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
11
|
13
|
14
11 to
15
|
9
4 to
14
|
5
1 to
13
|
2066
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
25%
-3 to
39%
|
-19%
-60 to
22%
|
-59%
-87 to
16%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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