What is Democratic Republic of the Congo's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
LULUCF emissions profile trajectories
In its updated 2021 NDC, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reported that three quarters of its total GHG emissions in 2018 were from land-use, land-use change and forestry (around 530 MtCO₂). The major driver of these emissions is deforestation; according to the FAO, close to 100% of LULUCF emissions come from net forest conversion. Forest loss in the DRC emits more than any other sector, and this is mainly as a result of demand for land for agriculture and the use of charcoal for cooking in households.1
The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here indicates that the DRC will need to drastically reverse its deforestation pattern to substantially reduce LULUCF emissions this decade. In this pathway, net emissions are projected to reach close to zero by 2030, zero by 2040, and falls to net negative in the decades after that. Carbon sequestration increases to over 100 MtCO₂ by mid-century, which is achieved through an increase in forest area.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Note that there is an inconsistency between modelled LULUCF emissions and sequestration and historical emissions and sequestration reported by countries. This is because of a difference in how anthropogenic emissions and sequestration are estimated in greenhouse gas inventories compared to models.
-
Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions in 2005 – 2020 for the LULUCF sector are derived from national greenhouse gas inventories (data source: FAO 2021). Future emissions trajectory in 2025 - 2060 for the LULUCF sector is derived from a global 1.5°C compatible pathway downscaled to the country level (data source: IMAGE 2021). Positive emissions indicate an increase in deforestation or other sources related to land use change. Negative emissions indicate an increase of forest area through afforestation/reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
-
Democratic Republic of the Congo's Forest area change
Million ha / yr
-
Graph description
The graph indicates the annual rate of forest area change. Negative values result from a loss in forest area through deforestation and forestry (i.e. harvesting). Positive values result in forest area expansion through reforestation or afforestation. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
-
Forest area change
The DRC contains the largest share of the Congo Basin rainforest – close to 60% of its surface. Rainforests are critically important for biodiversity (accounting for around half of the world’s plant and animal species). They are also a key resource for sustainable development through, for example, their role in helping to regulate the climate and moderate fresh water flows.2,3 These ecosystems need to be conserved and restored.
The DRC has seen a very high rate of deforestation since 2005, with an increasing trend reaching 1.4 million ha/year deforested in 2020.4 The major driver of deforestation is agricultural demand for land (90 to 99% of total deforestation), particularly from small farming holders to cultivate cassava, palm oil, cocoa and maize.5,6 While playing a minor role in LULUCF emissions, the use of charcoal in households for cooking due to lack of affordable and accessible energy alternatives contributes to forest degradation and is the second most important source of severe forest degradation.7 Important habitats, including carbon-rich peatland, are also threatened by oil and gas exploration; the government having recently announced an auction for oil and gas permits.8
Contrary to the current trend on the ground, the 1.5°C pathway analysed here indicates an urgent need to cut deforestation rates, with reductions achieved already by 2025. From 2035 on, reforestation and afforestation activities would restore previously forested land, with peaks in forest area growth occurring in the 2040s and 2050s. This will require the country to focus on smallholder agriculture to foster the development and adoption of best-management practices and create incentives to develop a deforestation-free food supply chain.9 The deployment of grid infrastructure to enable energy access and sustainable energy alternatives for households – such as a decarbonised power – will help change cooking practices and the extensive use of charcoal in households.10 International support and initiatives will need to be made available to the DRC to support efforts in this direction.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's Land cover areas
Million ha
-
Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
-
Democratic Republic of the Congo's land cover change relative to 2020
Million ha
-
Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
-
Evolution of land-use pattern
The analysed 1.5°C compatible pathway indicates an increase in both the forest area through reforestation/afforestation between 2035 and 2050 (5.7 million ha added in 15 years) and in cropland (around 2 million ha added between 2020 and 2030, followed by steady growth to reach a level of around 13 million ha by 2050). This is made possible through a shift in land-use types, mostly reducing pasture land (7% reduction of pasture land area by 2030 and 44% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels under the 1.5°C compatible pathway). Pasture land accounts for around 66% of total cultivated land and the remaining 34% dedicated to cropland, although pasture activities represent only 9% of the agriculture production.11 The DRC government can further shift in land-use patterns through providing incentives and capacity building on best practices.