LULUCF

Democratic Republic of the Congo’s LULUCF sector

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) hosts 60% of the Congo rainforest, the second largest tropical forest in the world after the Amazon. The Congo Basin sequesters 1.5 GtCO₂/yr gross as a natural sink. However, as this 1.5 GtCO₂/yr is part of the natural land sink (rather than an anthropogenic sink) it is not covered in our analysis. The worlds’ largest tropical peatland, the Cuvette Centrale, which stores 30% of the global tropical peatland carbon stock, is also found in the DRC.¹^,²^,³

Historically, the DRC’s land use, land change and forestry (LULUCF) sector has been a net carbon source, emitting more than it stores. In 2020, the LULUCF sector emitted 529 MtCO₂e, around 90% of total emissions across all sectors. Historical LULUCF emissions have largely a result of deforestation and land degradation driven by forest clearance for agriculture, firewood, logging, and mining.⁴^,⁵^,⁶^,⁷ Additionally, there have been concerns over DRC’s decision to grant oil and gas concessions in forest and peatland areas which might undermine efforts to maintain and enhance carbon sinks.⁸

Managing forest area change (reducing deforestation, improving afforestation/reforestation) is critical to determining the future of DRC’s LULUCF emissions pathways. The Global Forest Watch reported that the DRC lost 6% of its total of primary forest (6.33 Mha) since 2002. When including secondary forest loss, this reaches 18.4 Mha of lost tree cover from 2001-2022.⁹ This amounts to emissions of 11.4 GtCO₂e (an average of 517 MtCO₂e/year).

To address high emissions from the LULUCF sector, the DRC has set out to reduce reliance on wood and biomass for fuel by promoting other energy sources including solar and hydro, committed to bringing more forested areas under protection to stop deforestation, banning forest logging, encouraging agricultural practices that minimise cropland expansion into forested areas, and establishing legal frameworks for indigenous land-use rights.¹⁰^,¹¹ Key policies include the National Forest Financing Fund (FONAREDD), National REDD+ Framework Strategy (SNR), the 2022 National Land Policy and the 2025 Land-Use Planning Law.¹²^,¹³^,¹⁴ In 2021, DRC signed the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use at the UNFCCC COP26, pledging to stop and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.¹⁵

The LULUCF sector is responsible for the vast share of DRC’s current emissions, and it is also expected to be responsible for a significant share of emissions reductions in the DRC’s 2030 NDC target. The DRC’s 2021 NDC set an economy-wide emissions target of a 17% reduction by 2030 relative to BAU.¹⁶ The LULUCF sector has an estimated reduction potential of 182-192 MtCO₂ by 2030, 37-47% of total reduction potential.¹⁷

Graph description

Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.

Methodology
- Downscaling LULUCF emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions from national GHG inventory
- The 1.5°C -aligned projection of land-use emissions

1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways

Across all modelled illustrative pathways, emissions in this sector gradually decline, with the Deep Electrification and Net-Zero Commitments pathways reaching net zero by 2050. In the modelled Deep Electrification pathway, the DRC’s LULUCF sector becomes a net sink in 2050 (-38.7 MtCO₂). Beyond 2065, all the illustrative pathways show that the DRC’s LULUCF sector may revert to a carbon source.

The slight uptick emissions in the latter half of the century reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates.¹⁸^,¹⁹ At the same time, climate risks such as droughts and altered rainfall patterns and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake.²⁰^,²¹ The effect of CO₂ fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.²²

Democratic Republic of the Congo's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

Graph description

Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.

Methodology
- Downscaling LULUCF emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions from national GHG inventory
- The 1.5°C -aligned projection of land-use emissions

Forestry activities

The emissions reductions seen in the DRC’s LULUCF sector through mid-century are primarily driven by steep reductions in forest loss, which is essentially halted by 2030. While we incorporate real-world forest loss through 2024, any mis-match between our pathways and actual forest loss this year will have to be made up for with sharper reductions in the second half of this decade.

While deforestation is halted by 2030, gross emissions in the LULUCF sector don’t exactly mirror this trend, only reaching zero in mid-century, highlighting the inherent lag between emissions and deforestation and how forests can continue to release emissions which are linked to past land-use activities far into the future.

Positive forest area change through afforestation and reforestation (A/R) is minimised in these pathways, leading to minimal growth in the total sink potential even as deforestation is halted. Other studies which take a more granular approach to mapping A/R potential find that the DRC has significant opportunity for reforestation, up to 5 Mha, or 3% of the global reforestation potential.²³ If achieved, the 5Mha of additional tree cover could lead to a sink of 115 MtCO₂ per year. However, A/R can be fraught in regions without adequate protections to ensure forest expansion doesn’t lead to social conflict. Without ensuring secure land tenure by formalising land rights and title claims and supporting the rights and political engagement local and traditional land users, the A/R potential for the DRC drops to zero. With continued development of land rights and enforcement of the law, the DRC could enhance its carbon sink while minimising negative social impact.

Democratic Republic of the Congo's Forest area change

Million hectares / year

Graph description

The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.

Methodology
- Determining forest area changes
Data References

“(PDF) Mapping of Central Africa Forested Wetlands Using Remote Sensing,” ResearchGate, ahead of print, April 30, 2025 ↩
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale Révisée (2021), 102. ↩
Rhett A. Butler, “The Congo Rainforest,” 2020 ↩
“Monitoring Forest Cover and Land Use Change in the Congo Basin under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios | PLOS One,” accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
Joël Masimo Kabuanga et al., “Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo),” Land 10, no. 10 (2021): 1042 ↩
Eba’a Atyi R et al., The Forests of the Congo Basin: State of the Forests 2021 (CIFOR, 2022). ↩
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale Révisée. ↩
“DRC Approves Oil Exploration in Critical Peatland,” Rainforest Rescue, accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
“Democratic Republic of the Congo Deforestation Rates & Statistics | GFW,” accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
“Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire,” accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
Smutsia temminckii, “Historic Win for Indigenous Peoples: DRC Enacts Inclusive Land-Use Planning Law,” Environmental Defenders, July 24, 2025 ↩
“Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire.” ↩
“Historic Win for Indigenous Peoples: DRC Enacts Inclusive Land-Use Planning Law - Environmental Defenders Historic Win for Indigenous Peoples: DRC Enacts Inclusive Land-Use Planning Law,” accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
“Textes Lég. & Régl. Archives,” Ministère de l’Environnement, Développement Durable et Nouvelle Economie du Climat - République Démocratique du Congo, July 14, 2020 ↩
“[ARCHIVED CONTENT] Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use - UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) at the SEC – Glasgow 2021,” accessed October 7, 2025 ↩
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale Révisée. ↩
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale Révisée. ↩
Yude Pan et al., “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests,” Science 333, no. 6045 (2011): 988–93 ↩
J.G. Canadell and M R Raupach, Managing Forests for Climate Change Mitigation | Science, 2008 ↩
Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi et al., “Multi-Model Climate Change Projections for India under Representative Concentration Pathways,” Current Science 103, no. 7 (2012): 791–802 ↩
Kurt A. Fesenmyer et al., “Addressing Critiques Refines Global Estimates of Reforestation Potential for Climate Change Mitigation,” Nature Communications 16, no. 1 (2025): 4572 ↩
Anthony P. Walker et al., “Integrating the Evidence for a Terrestrial Carbon Sink Caused by Increasing Atmospheric CO₂,” New Phytologist 229, no. 5 (2021): 2413–45 ↩
Fesenmyer et al., “Addressing Critiques Refines Global Estimates of Reforestation Potential for Climate Change Mitigation.” ↩

What is Democratic Republic of the Congo's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Democratic Republic of the Congo’s LULUCF sector

Democratic Republic of the Congo's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways

Democratic Republic of the Congo's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

Forestry activities

Democratic Republic of the Congo's Forest area change

Million hectares / year

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