In its updated 2021 NDC, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reported that three quarters of its total GHG emissions in 2018 were from land-use, land-use change and forestry (around 530 MtCO₂). The major driver of these emissions is deforestation; according to the FAO, close to 100% of LULUCF emissions come from net forest conversion. Forest loss in the DRC emits more than any other sector, and this is mainly as a result of demand for land for agriculture and the use of charcoal for cooking in households.¹

The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here indicates that the DRC will need to drastically reverse its deforestation pattern to substantially reduce LULUCF emissions this decade. In this pathway, net emissions are projected to reach close to zero by 2030, zero by 2040, and falls to net negative in the decades after that. Carbon sequestration increases to over 100 MtCO₂ by mid-century, which is achieved through an increase in forest area.

¹ Pacheco, P. et al. Deforestation Fronts Drivers and Responses in a Changing World. (2021).

² Grassi, G. et al. Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress – SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 425–434 (2021).

³ Butler, R. A. The Congo Rainforest. 2020.

⁴ National Geographic. Rainforest | National Geographic Society. 2022.

⁵ World Resources Institute. Global Forest Watch: Deforestation Rates & Statistics by Country. 2022

⁶ Center for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa. DR Congo | CCARDESA. 2022.

⁷ Greenfield, P. DRC to auction oil and gas permits in endangered gorilla habitat. The Guardian (2022).

⁸ FAO. FAOSTAT: Emissions Totals. FAOSTAT (2022).

⁹ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. IMAGE. Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment. Preprint at models.pbl.nl/image/index.php/Welcome_to_IMAGE_3.2_Documentation (2021).

The DRC contains the largest share of the Congo Basin rainforest – close to 60% of its surface. Rainforests are critically important for biodiversity (accounting for around half of the world’s plant and animal species). They are also a key resource for sustainable development through, for example, their role in helping to regulate the climate and moderate fresh water flows.^3,4 These ecosystems need to be conserved and restored.

The DRC has seen a very high rate of deforestation since 2005, with an increasing trend reaching 1.4 million ha/year deforested in 2020.⁵ The major driver of deforestation is agricultural demand for land (90 to 99% of total deforestation), particularly from small farming holders to cultivate cassava, palm oil, cocoa and maize.^1,5 While playing a minor role in LULUCF emissions, the use of charcoal in households for cooking due to lack of affordable and accessible energy alternatives contributes to forest degradation and is the second most important source of severe forest degradation.¹ Important habitats, including carbon-rich peatland, are also threatened by oil and gas exploration; the government having recently announced an auction for oil and gas permits.⁷

Contrary to the current trend on the ground, the 1.5°C pathway analysed here indicates an urgent need to cut deforestation rates, with reductions achieved already by 2025. From 2035 on, reforestation and afforestation activities would restore previously forested land, with peaks in forest area growth occurring in the 2040s and 2050s. This will require the country to focus on smallholder agriculture to foster the development and adoption of best-management practices and create incentives to develop a deforestation-free food supply chain.¹ The deployment of grid infrastructure to enable energy access and sustainable energy alternatives for households – such as a decarbonised power – will help change cooking practices and the extensive use of charcoal in households.¹ International support and initiatives will need to be made available to the DRC to support efforts in this direction.

The analysed 1.5°C compatible pathway indicates an increase in both the forest area through reforestation/afforestation between 2035 and 2050 (5.7 million ha added in 15 years) and in cropland (around 2 million ha added between 2020 and 2030, followed by steady growth to reach a level of around 13 million ha by 2050). This is made possible through a shift in land-use types, mostly reducing pasture land (7% reduction of pasture land area by 2030 and 44% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels under the 1.5°C compatible pathway). Pasture land accounts for around 66% of total cultivated land and the remaining 34% dedicated to cropland, although pasture activities represent only 9% of the agriculture production.⁶ The DRC government can further shift in land-use patterns through providing incentives and capacity building on best practices.