The DRC’s updated NDC is composed of a 19% conditional and 2% unconditional GHG emissions reduction target below BAU levels by 2030. The conditional target translates into an increase in emissions of 92% above 2015 by 2030, or 275 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF). The NDC provides general mitigation actions which are intended to contribute to quantified emissions reduction targets, but it lacks a quantified breakdown for each mitigation action. Actions are listed for the energy, agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors. No actions are listed for the industrial processes sector as its contribution to the DRC‘s GHG emissions balance is minimal. The implementation of the DRC’s NDC is conditional on financial support, with an estimated cost of 48.68 billion USD of which 25.60 billion USD would be needed for mitigation measures.
Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicates that the DRC would need to reduce emissions by 14% below 2015 levels or 124 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The LULUCF sector contributed 75% of the DRC’s total emissions in 2018, mainly driven by deforestation. When excluding LULUCF, emissions are predominantly driven by the waste sector, and mostly consist of methane (92% in 2018). The remaining share of emissions comes from the energy (5%) and agriculture (3%) sectors, when excluding LULUCF.
Long term pathway
As of January 2023, the DRC has not submitted its long-term strategy. To be consistent with 1.5°C compatible pathway, the DRC would need to cut its GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) by 9%–51% below 2015 levels by 2050. The most important sectors with substantial emissions reduction potential are LULUCF and the waste sector.
LULUCF emissions account for 75% of the country’s emissions (in 2018). In 2008, the DRC shifted from being a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Without decisive action, the DRC could lose about 10% of its forest area by 2030 and 15–20% by 2050. However, with the right policies in place, the DRC’s immense forest cover of around 137.7 million ha (in 2020) could help the country become a carbon sink again.,
, the second most emitting sector is waste mostly driven by methane (CH₄) emissions, constituting the highest share (92% in 2018) of the country’s emissions, when excluding the LUUCF