What is Cameroon's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
LULUCF emissions profile trajectories
The land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector in Cameroon contributed 78% to the country’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2019.1,2 Agriculture expansion that converts forests has led to forest fragmentation, degradation, and deforestation, thus leading to emissions and reducing forests’ capacity to sequester carbon. Mining activities that entail forest clearing to access the minerals also contribute to carbon emissions.3
Despite current efforts to change the agriculture system to avoid deforestation, the expansion in agricultural areas seen between 1990 and 2011 is expected to continue in the future due to population growth and an increase in food demand.4 This could lead to rising LULUCF emissions, especially if expansion encroaches on forested areas.
In the 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here, net emissions from forest conversion reach a peak around 2025 and fall to very low levels by 2030. In this pathway, the LULUCF sector has net negative emissions starting from 2050.
Cameroon has pledged to reduce its total emissions by 35% by 2030, compared with business-as-usual levels.5 This target would require a reduction in emissions from the LULUCF sector. The country plans to practice sustainable forestry to reduce pressures on forests and improve zonation plans to avoid forest clearance for agriculture purposes. To put these measures in practice, Cameroon needs to reform its forest governance through increasing the participation of local community and indigenous peoples in policy-making processes, especially regarding the use of forest resources.
Effective and sustained international support, such as finance, technology, and knowledge transfer could help Cameroon accelerate reforestation/afforestation and restore degraded forests.6 The combination of these measures could help Cameroon achieve its NDC targets and pursue efforts to align with the 1.5°C limit.
Cameroon's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Note that there is an inconsistency between modelled LULUCF emissions and sequestration and historical emissions and sequestration reported by countries. This is because of a difference in how anthropogenic emissions and sequestration are estimated in greenhouse gas inventories compared to models.
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions in 2005 – 2020 for the LULUCF sector are derived from national greenhouse gas inventories (data source: FAO 2021). Future emissions trajectory in 2025 - 2060 for the LULUCF sector is derived from a global 1.5°C compatible pathway downscaled to the country level (data source: IMAGE 2021). Positive emissions indicate an increase in deforestation or other sources related to land use change. Negative emissions indicate an increase of forest area through afforestation/reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Cameroon's Forest area change
Million ha / yr
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Graph description
The graph indicates the annual rate of forest area change. Negative values result from a loss in forest area through deforestation and forestry (i.e. harvesting). Positive values result in forest area expansion through reforestation or afforestation. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Forest area change
Forests play an important role in storing and sequestering carbon, and in sustaining the lives of rural populations. However, the expansion of land used for shifting agriculture, for biofuel crops such as palm oil, and for mining activities have led to deforestation and forest degradation since 2000.7,8
Between 2001 and 2021, deforestation in Cameroon has led to a loss of 1.70 million ha of forest with an average rate of 80 kha/year.9 During this period, expansion of cropland for shifting agriculture by small- and medium-scale farmers has reduced forest cover by 78 kha/year. Industrial agriculture, such as palm oil and crop monoculture, further exacerbated deforestation, with an average rate of 0.5 kha/year.10,11,12 In 2021, shifting agriculture and industrial agriculture reduced tree cover by 167 kha/year and 3 kha/year, respectively; a rise from previous rates. Without measures to avoid agricultural expansion leading to forest degradation and deforestation, tree cover loss is likely to continue in the future.13
In the 1.5°C compatible pathway, deforestation continues at a low level during the next two decades at an average rate of around 6 kha/year and declines to close to zero by 2040. Starting in the 2040s, afforestation/reforestation activities are ramped up, adding around 10 kha of forest per year to boost carbon sequestration. By 2050, the area of managed forest land has grown by over one million hectares, or about 5%.
Cameroon laid out mitigation measures in the forestry and agriculture sectors to halt deforestation. Cameroon plans to practice sustainable forest management, restore degraded forests, accelerate afforestation/reforestation, and transition from its currently extensive agriculture system.14,15 Cameroon needs investment and international support to both avoid deforestation and ensure economic resilience of its rural populations, which are the backbone of the economy.16,17
Cameroon's Land cover areas
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
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Cameroon's land cover change relative to 2020
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Evolution of land-use pattern
In 2020, 43% of Cameroon’s land was covered by forest.18 In the 1.5°C compatible pathway, forest cover makes up 45% of Cameroon’s land area by the 2030s, and grows to almost half of the land area in 2050s. Growing demand for food drives an increase in cropland, which is made possible initially through some conversions of forested and natural land, but is mostly enabled through declines in pastureland. More work would be needed to understand whether and how such shifts could be achieved in Cameroon, but some options to explore would be agriculture intensification and implementing a clear land zonation (see sections above).
Agricultural intensification, such as farming and livestock production, aims to produce the same or higher level of output, while increasing the effectiveness of inputs, such as labour, land, fertiliser, seed and feed. This can enable halting agricultural expansion, especially to forested land.19 When coupled with sustainable forest management, agricultural intensification can reduce pressures on forests. This can also liberate crop and pasture lands for future afforestation and reforestation.
Agricultural intensification can be achieved through agroforestry, which small-scale farmers in Cameroon have practiced for cocoa production. Such approaches would need to be scaled up and extended to agro-industry companies and other small-scale farmers to reduce emissions from land.
Considering climate impacts in the future, some practices for agricultural intensification would need to be evaluated in terms of their water use. Shifting to crop varieties with low water requirement and optimisation of irrigation systems could be an option. Nevertheless, implementing such initiatives would require massive investment, research and development, and the necessary capacity building within partnership programs.20