In its updated NDC submitted in October 2021, Argentina set an absolute GHG emissions target of 316 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.2 This is equivalent to reducing emissions by 9% below 2015 levels. To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Argentina would need to have reduced emissions in 2030 by 29-47% below 2015 levels. This translates to absolute emissions of 181-248 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. Argentina’s current 2030 ambition is not yet consistent with these pathways.
Long term pathway
So far, Argentina has only announced its intent to reach carbon neutrality (net zero CO₂) in 2050 but has not yet provided details of how it will reach this goal nor intermediate targets to get there.1,2
In the long term, in order to be compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, total GHG emissions in Argentina would need to be reduced to between 72-83% below 2015 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF), equivalent to 59-96 MtCO₂e.24
The remaining emissions will need to be balanced by using carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as reforestation/afforestation or direct air capture. Given that the LULUCF sector is a source of emissions, Argentina will need to implement stronger policies to reduce its land use emissions and turn this sector into a sink to help reach net zero GHG.
A rapid decline in CO₂ emissions will need to come from the energy sector, as Argentina’s largest overall emitter of CO₂. Agriculture, the second highest emitting sector would be the last to decarbonise, reaching zero emissions after 2050. Reductions in this sector, as well as enhancing natural sink, would help to reach net zero GHG emissions by mid-century.
1 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina.UNFCCC, 2020.
6 Ministerio de Energía de Argentina. Plan de Acción Nacional de Energía y Cambio Climático [National Action Plan on Energy and Climate Change.] República de Argentina. 2017.
7 El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina. Ley 27191: Régimen de Fomento Nacional para el uso de Fuentes Renovables de Energía destinada a la Producción de Energía Eléctrica. Modificación Ley 26190. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2015.
8 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible. Plan Nacional de Mitigación del sector Transporte – PNMT. 1–83 (2017).
9 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable Argentina. Listado de medidas de mitigación y adaptación a nivel nacional (Contribución Nacional ) Febrero 2019. 2019.
10 República de Argentina. Plan de Acción Nacional de Agro y Cambio Climático. 2019.
12 Congreso de la Nación Argentina. Ley 26.331: LEY DE PRESUPUESTOSMINIMOS DE PROTECCIONAMBIENTAL DE LOSBOSQUESNATIVOS. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2007.
23 Lanfranchi, J. Hidrógeno verde en la Argentina: están demoradas inversiones millonarias por los tiempos de la política. La Nacion. 2022.
24 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
25 This target is in AR4GWP; Argentina originally expressed their NDC target in SARGWP of 359 MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF. Mitigations targets are proportional to relevance of each sector, LULUCF emissions were deducted using the percentage of share expected for 2030.
Switching from an energy supply dominated by oil and gas to one with higher shares of renewables, including wind, solar and biomass, will be key to Argentina’s 1.5°C aligned energy system transformation. The amount of renewable energy used in future energy supply scenarios is inversely related to the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Scenarios showing a higher adoption of renewables by 2030 are able to rely far less on CDR. A lower adoption of renewables makes these technologies more likely to be needed. Scenarios that effectively reduce overall energy demand are also less likely to require the use of negative emissions technologies. While Argentina has set a target of 20% non-hydro renewable power by 2025, this is likely to be insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal, given the need to reach a greater than three-quarters share including hydropower by 2030.13,14 In addition, concrete targets for the whole energy sector, or for phasing out fossil fuels have not been established.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Argentina. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.