In its updated NDC submitted in October 2021, Argentina set an absolute GHG emissions target of 316 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030. This is equivalent to reducing emissions by 9% below 2015 levels. To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Argentina would need to have reduced emissions in 2030 by 29-47% below 2015 levels. This translates to absolute emissions of 181-248 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. Argentina’s current 2030 ambition is not yet consistent with these pathways.
Long term pathway
So far, Argentina has only announced its intent to reach carbon neutrality (net zero CO₂) in 2050 but has not yet provided details of how it will reach this goal nor intermediate targets to get there.,
In the long term, in order to be compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, total GHG emissions in Argentina would need to be reduced to between 72-83% below 2015 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF), equivalent to 59-96 MtCO₂e.
The remaining emissions will need to be balanced by using carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as reforestation/afforestation or direct air capture. Given that the LULUCF sector is a source of emissions, Argentina will need to implement stronger policies to reduce its land use emissions and turn this sector into a sink to help reach net zero GHG.
A rapid decline in CO₂ emissions will need to come from the energy sector, as Argentina’s largest overall emitter of CO₂. Agriculture, the second highest emitting sector would be the last to decarbonise, reaching zero emissions after 2050. Reductions in this sector, as well as enhancing natural sink, would help to reach net zero GHG emissions by mid-century.