Skip to content

Current situation

What is Peruʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

Forests cover about two-thirds of Peru’s territory. Emissions from LULUCF, mainly due to deforestation, represented the largest portion (51%) of Peru’s overall emissions in 2014, based on Peru’s national emissions inventory. This is followed by the energy sector, accounting for 26% of emissions. Transport is the largest individual contributor to energy sector emissions followed by the power sector.

In the last official GHG inventory year, Peru’s deforestation rate grew by 80% in 2014 compared to 2001, contributing to the high proportion of LULUCF emissions in the 2014 total.10 However, current policy projections estimate that Peru’s overall emissions will decrease by 38-40% by 2030 compared to Peru’s last official GHG inventory in 2012.2 Increased installation of renewable sources in the power sector and incentivising the use of zero-emission modes of transport are key policies driving this reduction in emissions.

1 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).

3 Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021).

4 COES Perú. Actualización Plan de Transmision 2021 – 2030. (2020).

5 Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018).

6 International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020).

7 BN Americas. What’s next for Peru’s failed 7-region gas concession call? BN Americas (2021).

8 Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020).

9 Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020).

10 Reuters Staff. Peru says deforestation on the rise, up 80 percent from 2001. Reuters (2014).

11 International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020).

12 Banco del Desarrollo de Perú (COFIDE). Prácticas e instrumentos financieros para promover la descarbonización de la movilidad urbana. (2019).

13 COFIDE. KfW y COFIDE firman acuerdo de préstamo por 250 millones de euros para Programa “Covid 19: Programa de Reactivación Verde”. (2020).

14 Organismo Supervisor de Inversión en Energía y Minería (OSINERGMIN)- Perú. La industria del gas natural en el Perú a diez años del Proyecto Camisea. 51, (2017).

15 El Congreso de la República de Perú. LEY No 29969: Ley que dicta disposiciones a fin de promover la masificación del gas natural. El Peruano 23, 32 (El Congreso de la Repúblic de Perú, 2012).

16 Government of Peru. Peruvian submission to the UNFCCC under the Copenhagen accord. (2010).

17 Ministerio del Ambiente- Perú. Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. (2019).

18 Ministry of Environment of Peru. Programa Bosques del Minam proyecta conservar 10 millones de hectáreas de bosques comunales hacia el 2030. (2020).

19 BN Americas. Increasing natural gas use in 7 Peruvian regions: a mature and profitable project. (2020).

20 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

21 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Peruʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Buildings
  • Other
  • LULUCF
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
Energy (22%)0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
077%0

Sectors by gas

Energy
092%0
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
098%0

Energy system

Fossil fuels made up 75% of Peru’s total energy supply in 2018.11 The majority is made up of oil used for fossil fuel vehicles in transport. Natural gas also made up a considerable portion of the TPES (28%) in 2018.11

In the power sector, roughly 60% of Peru’s power production already comes from renewable sources, with hydropower accounting for 55% of power production alone.6 However, natural gas still accounted for 38% of power production in 2017. No gas phase-out date has been set by the Peruvian government.

Liquefied natural gas in particular is being promoted in the country, with increasing usage in the transport and residential energy sectors through projects financed by the government and the Peruvian Development Bank.12,13 The government of Peru sees improving access to natural gas as a key step to increasing social inclusion and reducing energy poverty in rural areas.14,15 The continued development of natural gas in the country brings high risk for stranded assets and lock-in to emitting technologies in the future.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Fixed level target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • Absolute emissions limit of 208.8 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
  • Equivalent to 123 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) or 23% above 2015 levels.

Conditional NDC Target:

  • Absolute emissions limit of 179 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
  • Equivalent to 107 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) or 5% above 2015 levels.

Long-term target

  • Peru has announced its intent to achieve carbon neutrality, or net zero GHG emissions including LULUCF, by 2050. However, a clear strategy to reach this goal is not yet set, as the formulation of a strategy will only begin in 2021.9

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • In its Copenhagen pledge, Peru set a target to reach 33% renewable energy in its total energy supply by 2020.16

Waste

  • The NAMA Solid Waste aims to reduce waste sector emissions by 2.4 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 through improving recycling, compost production and the use of methane from waste facilities for energy.17

LULUCF

  • In its Copenhagen pledge submitted in 2010, Peru set a target to reach net zero deforestation in the country by 2021.16 It did not meet this target.
  • Peru’s National Forest Conservation Program has set a new target to conserve 10 million hectares of community owned forests by 2030, which would translate to reducing the current deforestation rate by 30%.18

Buildings

  • The Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines has set a target to reach 15% renewable electricity production from non-hydro renewable sources, such as wind and solar, by 2030.3

Agriculture

  • In Peru’s 2019 biennial report to the UNFCCC, the country indicated several ongoing NAMAs for the agricultural sector focused on reducing emissions from the cultivation of cocoa, coffee, oil palm and livestock. The mitigation potential from these measures is still under calculation.17

Footnotes