Peru’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), updated in 2020, sets a 2030 conditional target to limit emissions to 179 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 including LULUCF. This translates to absolute emissions levels of 107 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF, or a 5% emissions increase above 2015 levels.,
In contrast, 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways would require the country to reduce its emissions by 33% below 2015 levels or to emissions levels of 67 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Limiting emissions to Peru’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway will require substantial international support to close the large gap between its fair share level and and 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions level.
Peru has announced its intent to achieve net zero GHG emissions including LULUCF by 2050. A clear strategy to reach this goal is not yet set, as the formulation of a strategy will begin in 2021.
When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed levels of around 12 MtCO₂e/yr or emissions reductions of at least 89% below 2015 levels. Similarly, Peru’s CO₂ emissions will reach zero by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from land sector.
Given its high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), Peru will need to implement stringent policies to halt deforestation to reduce LULUCF emissions so the land sector can become a larger sink.
Zero CO₂ emissions, excluding LULUCF, will need to be driven by the full decarbonisation of the power sector and replacement of fossil fuel transport with zero-emission vehicles.