What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Our analysis of Paris Agreement compatible pathways demonstrates that the US power sector could be fully decarbonised by 2036. This could be achieved through the phase-out of coal and gas by 2029 and 2038–2039, respectively, and a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix to reach a share of 77–93% by 2030.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in August 2022, includes significant support for renewable energy and storage technologies, largely through tax credits. One assessment found that the IRA could double the 2020 pace of wind capacity additions by 2025. For solar, the pace increase could be fivefold. Overall, the IRA is expected to speed up power sector emissions reductions: from previously expected 54–66% to 69–80% below 2005 levels by 2030.1
While the US currently does not have a federal renewable energy target, thirty states, Washington, D.C., and three territories have adopted renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and seven states and one territory have set renewable energy goals.2 One study has attributed about half of all growth in the US renewable generation and capacity since 2000 to state RPS requirements.3 While this mechanism fosters the development of renewable energies, more stringent policies will need to be put in place to comply with the steep uptake required by 2030 to be Paris Agreement compatible.
United States' power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5°C compatible pathways show that the sector could contribute to negative emissions up to –80 gCO₂/kWh by 2050. This will be driven by the phase-out of fossil fuels and uptake of renewables, reaching 98–100% of the power mix by 2050.
President Biden’s proposed clean energy target of a “carbon-free” power sector by 2035 would be in line with the 1.5°C compatible scenarios. However, there are currently no national targets to phase out fossil fuels in the US and initial analyses find that the Inflation Reduction Act is not likely to put the US on track to decarbonise the power sector by 2035.4
United States' power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in USA to be on the order of USD 50 to 284 billion by 2030 and 54 to 303 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
United States' renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United States
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
382
|
29 to
46
|
-129 to
-1
|
-78 to
-0
|
2036
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-92 to
-88%
|
-134 to
-100%
|
-120 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
25
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
38
|
4 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2038 to
2039
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
18
|
77 to
93
|
96 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
63
|
6 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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