What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The US’ industry sector’s direct CO₂ emissions related to energy demand have declined by nearly 20% since 1990 (as of 2017). This decline has been driven by a reduction in total energy demand and a decrease in the use of fossil fuels. During this period, the use of coal and oil both declined by more than 60%. Process-related emissions in the industry sector have also declined since 1990, but at about half the rate of energy-related emissions.

Our analysis indicates that industrial direct CO₂ emissions need to decline faster to be 1.5°C compatible. By 2030, these emissions would need to drop by 62–79% relative to 2019 levels and the sector’s energy emissions would need to reach zero by 2041 to 2047.

In the US LTS, energy-related industry CO₂ emissions are projected to decline slightly in the 2020s and 2030s before declining more rapidly in the 2040s.²2 The LTS does not project energy-related industry emissions to reduce in line with our 1.5°C benchmarks which show energy-related industry CO₂ emissions decline by 96% below 2019 levels by 2050. However, these pathways are not a direct comparison as emissions reductions from CDR technologies are considered separately in the LTS pathways while our assessment includes them.

At the federal level, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in August 2022, aims to establish the Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program to reduce emissions from key industries.³3 One study estimates that industrial emissions will reduce by 3–16% below 2005 levels including the impact of the IRA, largely driven by enhancements to carbon capture tax credits and reduced emissions from upstream oil and gas emissions. Industry emissions are also covered by emissions trading schemes in California and Oregon.⁴4