Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

On June 12 2021, a referendum on Switzerland’s updated CO₂ Act failed to pass, pushing the Swiss 2030 domestic emissions target back to that recommended by the Federal Council in 2016, a 30% reduction below 1990 levels. The stronger 37.5% target included in Switzerland’s rejected CO₂ Act and updated NDC already failed to achieve compatibility with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit; the failure of the CO₂ Act and reversion to the previous target places them even further behind.

The proposed reformulation of the law, released in late 2021, waters down key elements of the rejected version, and fails to ensure Switzerland’s 2030 target is a sufficiently ambitious contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C. A 63% reduction of domestic emissions below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF) would place Switzerland’s 2030 target safely within a 1.5°C compatible range. More stringent policies, particularly for the transport and buildings sectors, would also be required to achieve such a target.

Switzerland's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long-term pathway

Switzerland has set the goal to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show that excluding the contribution of LULUCF sinks, the country would already have negative emissions by 2050 of around –11 MtCO₂e/yr for some scenarios, thus having reached net zero GHG prior to that date. Other pathways show that this would mean for the country, remaining level of positive emissions not higher than 3-5 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 to be aligned with Paris Agreement compatible pathway.¹ Switzerland would then need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches, either by increasing its land sink(around –1 MtCO₂e/yr in 2018) or by developing technological options.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Unlike most countries, Switzerland’s energy-related emissions primarily originate from the transport and building sectors, as the power sector is close to being zero carbon. Industry sector emissions from fuel combustion make up around 14% of total energy-related emissions.² Clear and ambitious government policies will be critical in the transformation of these sectors.

Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to realise higher emissions reductions in Switzerland than in most countries due to how little fossil fuel generation there is in the power sector. Heat pumps are another readily available technology that could replace gas boilers for space and water heating. Both of these technologies can be rapidly integrated and provide large emissions reductions, but would require strong policy intervention to achieve the rapid uptake needed to decarbonise these sectors.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Switzerland. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	54	46	20 16 to 25	7 1 to 13	4 -11 to 6	2064
Relative to reference year in %			-63% -70 to -53%	-87% -98 to -75%	-92% -120 to -89%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	44	37	14 11 to 20	2 -3 to 8	-0 -14 to 1	2049 2038 to 2054
Relative to reference year in %			-69% -74 to -55%	-95% -107 to -82%	-101% -131 to -97%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Government of Switzerland. Switzerland. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2020) ↩

What is Switzerland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Switzerland's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long-term pathway

Switzerland's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Switzerland's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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