What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
South Africa's LULUCF Sector
The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in South Africa absorbs more emissions than it generates, leading to a net sink since 2010. While our latest available historical data point is 2020, national sources show the LULUCF sink grew 55% between 2020 and 2022.1 Between 2014 and 2022 an increase in afforestation contributed to the increasing sink. Forests are the largest emissions sink, with a gross sequestration of 82.3 MtCO2e/year in 2022. In the same year, net sequestration was around 43.3 MtCO2e, equivalent to roughly 10% of total emissions in South Africa.2 Conversion of forest and shrubland for agricultural use or construction was the largest sources of direct LULUCF emissions in 2022, generating around 19 MtCO2e.
Wildfires in South Africa have been occurring at an increasing frequency and intensity, contributing to loss of forest and shrubland.3 Due to data limitations, South Africa doesn’t estimate wildfire emissions as a separate category; wildfire emissions are estimated including emissions from controlled fires and prescribed burns in the agricultural sector, with total emissions of roughly 40 MtCO2e in 2022.4
South Africa’s 2035 NDC target, submitted in October 2024, does not include a separate target for the LULUCF sector.5 The NDC notes that as South Africa improves its systems for estimating land sector emissions, recalculations may result in significant changes in previously reported GHG estimates, underscoring the significant uncertainty in the sector.
South Africa's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
-
Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible pathways
While all pathways show a relatively similar trajectory, we focus on the Deep Electrification pathway, which maintains the net sink through a rapid decline of gross emissions below 2020 levels, reaching zero in 2045.
In the Deep Electrification pathway, South Africa’s net sink begins to decline gradually from present out to 2070. This decline reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates.6,7 Concurrently, climate risks such as fires, droughts, storms and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake.8 The effect of CO2 fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.9 Declining ecosystem productivity and carbon stock resilience further raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of forest-based removals under climate stress.10
South Africa's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
-
Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
-
Forestry activities
In the last 20 years, South Africa has increased its forest area, leading to a net positive balance between forest gains and losses. In the Deep Electrification pathway, deforestation is halted by 2030, after which forest area change becomes negligible.
However, there may be a higher LULUCF sink potential than what is foreseen in these pathways, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in the LULUCF sector. Other studies which take a more granular approach to mapping afforestation and reforestation find that South Africa has potential to reforest a further 371,000 hectares, which could, If implemented, remove an additional 2.81 MtCO2/year.11 However, South Africa should avoid reliance on expanding the LULUCF sink in lieu of deeper emissions reductions in other sectors, which is risky given the uncertainty around the future sink and its increasing vulnerability due to climate change.
South Africa's Forest area change
Million hectares / year
-
Graph description
The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.
Methodology
Data References
-