What is Singapore's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Singapore has focused on phasing out petroleum products from its electricity supply by switching to natural gas, which as of 2019 accounts for 95% of its electricity generation as opposed to 2% for renewable energy.1 Paris Agreement compatible pathways require renewables to ramp-up 10-16% by 2030 (a five-fold factor). Such a transformation would require Singapore to revise its current gas-centric policy, and bring forward and accelerate future plans for solar, connecting to regional grids and importing green hydrogen to diversify and decarbonise its power mix.
Singapore is constrained by the availability of space, but renewable energy imports could be an option to decarbonise its power system. There are various renewable energy projects (including solar, and green hydrogen) being developed within the region, that could be explored to support Singapore’s import plans, for example, Australia plans to build a 3 GW solar farm and a 4500 km transmission system with undersea cabling that could power a fifth of Singapore’s energy needs.2 Southeast Asia also has huge renewable energy potential that can be traded within the region or exported. Southeast Asia has the technical potential to achieve 100% renewable energy supply through a regional energy system however considerable further policy would be required.3
Singapore's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power system
The emissions intensity of Singapore’s power sector can reach zero to 8 gCO₂/kWh by 2040 and zero to –128 gCO₂/kWh by 2050. This would require Singapore to phase out coal, which plays a minor role, immediately from the power sector, and phase out gas between 2040 and 2050. Singapore committed to phase out coal by 2030s at COP26.4
Paris Agreement compatible pathways show a high potential for renewable energy (domestic and imported). If renewables reached 94-95% of generation by 2040, this would enable achieving a 1.5°C pathway without having to rely on CDR technologies.
If Singapore continues its natural gas reliance and delays the phase out date of 2040, it risks relying more heavily on negative emissions at a later date, and stranded assets. It also exposes itself to fossil fuel price volatility, and missing out on the comparative green economic advantage.
Singapore's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Singapore to be on the order of USD 0.1 to 4.6 billion by 2030 and 0.1 to 18 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments. Singapore is uniquely limited by its very small size and lack of available land to install renewable energy technologies, and is currently investigating sourcing renewable generation from Australia via a deep sea transmission cable.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Singapore's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Singapore
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
389
|
362 to
372
|
1 to
25
|
-89 to
0
|
2040 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-7 to
-5%
|
-100 to
-93%
|
-123 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
96
|
81 to
83
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2049
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
2
|
10 to
16
|
95 to
97
|
98 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
98
|
81 to
84
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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