Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Singapore updated its NDC in 2020 without increasing its ambition.¹ Singapore’s NDC target is to peak emissions at 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 which would translate in an increase in GHG emissions of 32% above 2015 levels by 2030. Singapore is currently reviewing its NDC.²

A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires Singapore to reduce emissions by around 61% from 2015 levels or 19 MtCO₂e by 2030 and to peak its emissions almost immediately.

As a city state, Singapore has a limited capacity to rely on LULUCF sector as a carbon sink. However, Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing climate finance support to other countries. A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Singapore to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to poor countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Singapore's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Singapore has an emissions target of 32 MtCO₂e by 2050 and plans for net zero emissions in the second half of the century, which is at odds with achieving a 1.5°C pathway. To be 1.5°C compatible the country would need to reach a level of GHG emissions of 0 (–2 to 2) MtCO₂e, or a 100% (97-104%) reduction below 2015 levels by 2050.³^,⁴ Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from carbon dioxide approaches or a fully decarbonised energy system based on renewables. Energy sector emissions would need to peak immediately.

Singapore implemented a carbon tax for industrial facilities of SGD$5/tCO₂e (roughly USD$3.7/tCO₂e) in 2019. The carbon tax will remain at this price until 2023, with plans to increase to SGD$25 per tonne by 2030 and further to SGD$ 50-80 per tonne by 2050.⁵ This would need to increase substantially in order to reduce emissions to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.⁶

A fair share contribution to international efforts can lead to additional emissions reductions. Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing support to other countries, for example, through climate finance.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The power sector will play the largest role in decarbonising the energy mix, particularly as the industry, transport and building sectors become further electrified. Ramping up electrification of these sectors and the inclusion of an ambitious renewable energy target would assist in decarbonising the energy sector. Singapore currently has a solar target of 2 GW to be installed by 2030, and a plan to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040.

Primary energy consumption is mainly from the industry sector, as its economy heavily relies on its oil refining and petrochemical hub. Singapore has the opportunity to transition its economy away from fossil fuels, for example transitioning to a regional or global green hydrogen hub. Paris Agreement compatible pathways analysed here underestimate the potential for green hydrogen imports in future, which has applications to decarbonise power, industry and transport sectors. As many countries decarbonise their economies, the uptake of renewables and green hydrogen is likely to increase sharply which could be the opportunity for Singapore to transform its economy.

Singapore’s Low Emissions Development Strategy includes considering ‘low carbon’ hydrogen. Importing hydrogen derived from renewables could be explored as an option to further decarbonise the primary energy.

Singapore’s low carbon strategy aims to rely on carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of its fourth energy switch, despite recognising the technology is limited by economic, institutional and technical constraints.⁷ There are no operational CCS projects linked to power generation in Southeast Asia, and the technology applied elsewhere is proving costly.⁸ Renewable energy (including imports) in combination with energy efficiency to reduce energy demand will lower the need for CDR technology.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Singapore. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	60	48	19 17 to 22	5 4 to 7	1 -1 to 2	2053 2047 to 2069
Relative to reference year in %			-69% -71 to -63%	-91% -93 to -89%	-98% -102 to -97%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	58	45	19 18 to 22	6 3 to 9	1 -2 to 3	2054 2045 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %			-68% -69 to -62%	-90% -94 to -85%	-99% -104 to -95%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

CAT. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker, Singapore. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Channel News Asia. Singapore to review its climate change target as world leaders agree COP26 deal. (2021). ↩
32 MtCO₂e calculated in AR4 values by the Climate Action Tracker. Source cites 33 MtCO₂e/yr in AR5 GWP values. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Strachen, E. & Greening, P. The Singapore Budget 2022 - A Continuing Commitment to Advancing Singapore’s Green Transition - Lexology. (2022). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Singapore. (2020). ↩
National Environment Agency. Singapore’s Fourth Biennial Update Report. (2020). ↩
Wamsted, D. & Schlissel, D. Petra Nova Mothballing Post-Mortem: Closure of Texas Carbon Capture Plant Is a Warning Sign. (2020). ↩

What is Singapore's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Singapore's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Singapore's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Singapore's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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