The energy consumption in Singapore’s building sector has not grown significantly since 2005. The sector accounts for 0.8% of total emissions. The share of residential sector in total final energy consumption was 4% in 2017, with the share of electricity in building sector at 90% in 2017.¹⁶ This is in line with our analysis of 1.5°C pathways which show that share of electricity in building sector could be around 95-96% in 2030 and 99% by 2050 under different scenarios. However, this high electrification would need to be supported by moving towards more renewable energy in the power sector, at present heavily dominated by natural gas. All scenarios show a rapid decline in direct emissions from buildings, reaching zero emissions by 2050 from 2019 level of 0.57 MtCO₂/yr. According to our analysis, net-zero building sector in Singapore could be reached by 2032-2046 in order to align to a 1.5°C pathway.

Singapore’s main policy for reducing emissions in the building sector is the Green Mark Scheme certification, a green building rating system designed to evaluate a building’s environmental impact and performance. The target is to have 80 % of Singapore’s building stock under this scheme by 2030 and to achieve a 35 % reduction in energy intensities from 2005 levels by 2030.^11,12 The Building Control Act of 2013 requires all existing buildings with a gross floor area of 15,000 m² or more to achieve the minimum Green Mark standard when they have undergone retrofitting. Singapore also has Mandatory Energy Labelling Scheme (MELS) to encourage households to buy energy-efficient appliances.¹² To be on a 1.5°C pathway, emissions intensity of the building sector needs to decline by 30-65% by 2030 from 2005 level.

¹ Singapore government. Singapore’s Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information. (2020).

² Climate Action Tracker. Singapore CAT Climate Target Update Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

³ Channel News Asia. Singapore to review its climate change target as world leaders agree COP26 deal. (2021).

⁴ CAT. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker, Singapore. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

⁵ National Environment Agency. Singapore’s Fourth Biennial Update Report. (2020).

⁶ Lau, H. C. et al. A Decarbonization Roadmap for Singapore and Its Energy Policy Implications. (2021) doi:10.3390/en14206455.

⁷ EDB: Singapore. Sustainable Jurong Island. 2021.

⁸ National Climate Change Secretariat. Charting Singapore’s Low-Carbon and Climate Resilient Future. (2020).

⁹ Strachen, E. & Greening, P. The Singapore Budget 2022 – A Continuing Commitment to Advancing Singapore’s Green Transition – Lexology. (2022).

¹⁰ UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement. (2021).

¹¹ Duarte, C., Raftery, P. & Schiavon, S. Development of Whole-Building Energy Models for Detailed Energy Insights of a Large Office Building with Green Certification Rating in Singapore. Energy Technol. 6, 84–93 (2018).

¹² Climate Action Tracker. Singapore. (2020).

¹³ Wamsted, D. & Schlissel, D. Petra Nova Mothballing Post-Mortem: Closure of Texas Carbon Capture Plant Is a Warning Sign. (2020).

¹⁴ Sun Cable. Sun Cable Website. Sun Cable. (2021).

¹⁵ Vidinopoulos, A., Whale, J. & Fuentes Hutfilter, U. Assessing the technical potential of ASEAN countries to achieve 100% renewable energy supply. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assessments 42, 100878 (2020).

¹⁶ IEA. Singapore. International Energy Agency. (2021).

¹⁷ PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).

¹⁸ NCCS. Singapore’s Emissions Profile. (2021).

¹⁹ Lewis, J. Shell mulls Singapore carbon capture hub and biofuels plant. (2021).

²⁰ Land Transport Authority. Land Transport Master Plan 2040. (2021).

²¹ Data excludes Land use, Land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions. However, Singapore’s LULUCF emissions account for very little (e.g. 0.1 MtCO₂e/yr in 2014).

²² 32 MtCO₂e calculated in AR4 values by the Climate Action Tracker. Source cites 33 MtCO₂e/yr in AR5 GWP values.

²³ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.