What is Nepal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
While power generated domestically for the central grid is next to fully decarbonised, Nepal imports on average around 33% of the electricity from its neighbouring India, where the sector is still largely reliant on fossil fuels.1-2 Power consumption thus remains somewhat carbon intensive, with approximately 25% of central grid consumption in 2021 relying on such imported fossil fuel-generated electricity.3,4
Increasing Nepal’s renewable energy capacity to 15 GW by 2030, as outlined in the country’s 2020 NDC,would replace electricity imports from Indian power plants and lead to further decarbonisation of power consumption within the upcoming decade.5 Nepal’s LTS envisions further increasing its renewable energy capacity to 53.2 GW by 2050 with the aim of electrification of major end-use sectors and trade of surplus clean energy.6
In addition to increasing hydropower and renewable energy generation, such substantial change in the power sector requires holistic cross-sectoral policy packages, including those that upgrade the power transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Nepal's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
As envisioned in its NDC and LTS, with increasing domestic production of clean energy, Nepal can drive decarbonisation through electrification of its end-use sectors. Promoting electric transportation and cooking technologies as well as industries that run on this clean energy would significantly reduce fossil fuel usage and curb household biomass combustion.
Around 5% of Nepali households, mostly in remote areas, still do not have access to electricity.7 In other parts of the country, despite accessibility, reliability and quality of service remains low.8 To improve energy access and security and promote electrification of end-use sectors, the government will need to expand and improve grid accessibility and load capacity, invest in pumped and storage hydro, improve energy mix by establishing large scale solar and wind projects, promote standalone energy storage systems, increase affordability of electricity, and provide subsidies and tax incentives on clean technologies.9,10
Nepal's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Nepal to be on the order of USD 0.33 to 0.56 billion by 2030 and 0.54 to 1.41 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Nepal's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nepal
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
0
|
-10 to
0
|
-6 to
-2
|
-4 to
-4
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
0 to
0%
|
0 to
0%
|
0 to
0%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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