What is Nepal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 June 2021

1.5°C compatible pathways

Nepal’s conditional 2030 targets put the country on track to reach 69-76 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (or 55-70% above 2011 levels) excluding LULUCF.1 Cost-effective pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal indicates that Nepal could reduce its domestic emissions to around 27-37 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (or 18-40% below 2011 levels) excluding LULUCF.2

Nepal’s fair share of global climate action, as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, lies well above this cost-effective emissions pathway, indicating that the country should receive international support – including finance, technology transfer and capacity building – to completely bridge the emissions gap between its fair share and the country’s cost-effective pathway. Nepal’s 2020 NDC estimates that USD 25 billion would be required to achieve the NDC’s mitigation targets, of which Nepal would invest USD 3.4 billion unconditionally.

This emissions accounting does not take into consideration the significant LULUCF sinks that the country holds. Today Nepal maintains just over 41.69% of its land under forest cover.3 In 2011, when forest cover was closer to 39%, the carbon sink capacity was estimated at 13 MtCO₂e/yr.4 As Nepal expands forest coverage and improves forest management practices, the country’s land sink capacity will increase. In its latest GHG inventory, Nepal projects that forest sink capacities may grow by an additional 5 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.5

Nepal's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

In its 2021 LTS, Nepal has stated its intention to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2045, through ambitious conditional targets. Nepal envisions fulfilling this goal mainly by increasing its renewable energy capacity, and through “clean” electrification of all major end-use sectors (including transport, buildings, and industries), by increasing and maintaining the country’s forest cover, through sustainable agriculture and forestry, and through sustainable waste management practices. Nepal’s LTS targets are conditional on the country receiving international support, including through climate finance, capacity building and technology transfer.6

Cost-effective pathways assessed here indicate that Nepal will need to reduce its GHG emissions to 18-23 MtCO₂e/yr or 48-59% below 2011 by 2050, which would then need to be balanced by corresponding land sinks to reach net zero by mid-century.7,8 Given the level of sinks that Nepal benefits from — estimated at around 13 MtCO₂e/yr in 2011 and projected to increase another 5 MtCO₂e/yr until 2030 — the country is well positioned to reach the level of sinks required to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2045.9

In Nepal, emissions from livestock and crop cultivation account for two-thirds of national emissions. These sub-sectors are harder to decarbonise completely due to lack of viable alternative technology and implications on food and livelihood security.

As Nepal harnesses more of its hydropower and solar capacity and promotes electrification of its major end-use sectors, the energy sector has the potential to decarbonise — reducing both CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions. Although some models show negative emissions from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), this is unlikely to happen as Nepal does not have any proven CDR storage capacity.

Nepal's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

Energy from fossil fuels made up around 25% of Nepal’s primary energy mix in 2021.10 Our analysis suggests that fossil fuel consumption in Nepal will need to rapidly decline to 5% by 2030 and reach zero by around 2040 (excluding non-energy fossil fuels).

To enable such reductions, Nepal will need to considerably scale up its renewable energy supply. In 2021, almost 91% of Nepal’s renewable energy source included traditional biomass used mostly in the residential sector—which has implications for human health.11 The remaining 9% was based on other renewables, including hydropower. Analysed pathways show a need to increase renewables to up to 80-90% by 2040 and close to 100% by 2050, shifting away from biomass use to increase hydropower, solar and wind energy. This will be possible through electrification of end-use sectors such as cooking and transportation.

Lower penetration of renewables would mean that Nepal would need to increase its level of land sinks to balance additional remaining emissions. While Nepal already has significant land sinks, there is no proven CDR storage capacity in the country and adoption of BECCS remains highly unlikely. While measures to reduce emissions often come with co-benefits for society (for example, improved energy access, lower costs, cleaner air), the same is not true for many CDR options. If deployed at large scale, CDR technologies could entail negative side-effects across different dimensions of sustainable development.

Nepal's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Nepal. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2011
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
45
63
32
27 to 37
23
21 to 26
19
18 to 23
Relative to reference year in %
-29%
-40 to -18%
-49%
-52 to -42%
-57%
-59 to -48%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
7
20
7
7 to 9
4
2 to 5
1
0 to 3
2061
Relative to reference year in %
8%
3 to 37%
-32%
-73 to -25%
-79%
-99 to -50%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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