What is Ghana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Ghana’s total GHG emissions (including the LULUCF sector) have increased on average by 2.1% per annum between 1990 and 2016.1 Over the same period, however, the national population and economy have expanded at a faster rate than GHG emissions. Emissions per capita have therefore decreased by 13.7%, while emissions per unit of GDP output have decreased by 59.3%.2
The energy sector is the largest source of emissions accounting for 36% of total GHG emissions in 2016.3 The LULUCF sector is second, accounting for 33% of Ghana’s total GHG emissions, with deforestation and the associated expansion of croplands and grasslands being the primary drivers.4 The agriculture sector contributes to 22% of emissions in 2016, but is notably not accounted for in the mitigation interventions listed in the NDC.5
Transport and power, mostly dominated by oil and natural gas, respectively, are the main drivers of energy-related emissions. Livestock and land conversion to cropland are key drivers of agriculture emissions.6 While the waste sector contributed to only 9% of emissions between 2012 and 2016, it was the fastest-growing emissions source, followed by the energy, agriculture and LULUCF sectors.
Under a BAU scenario, a 201% increase in emissions compared to 1990 levels is anticipated by 2030 (a 73% increase since 2016).7
Ghana's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Latest national inventory year available : 2016
Data References
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Energy system
The transportation and residential sectors each account for 36% of Ghana’s energy consumption. The industrial sector — including mining and mineral resource processing — accounts for 20% of consumption.8
Ghana’s energy fuel mix is dominated by fossil fuels, in part due to national oil reserves that have been developed since 2007.9 In 2018, 44% of the total national energy production (including exports) was sourced from oil, 37% from traditional biomass, 14% from natural gas, and only 5% and 0.03% from hydropower and other renewables respectively.10
Electricity made up roughly 13% of national energy consumption in 2016.11 More recent estimates indicate that 51% of Ghanaian electricity is powered from thermal fossil fuels (oil and natural gas), while hydropower and other renewables contribute 49.8% and 0.1% of the mix respectively.12
While Ghana intends to increase its renewable energy capacity from 42.5 MW in 2015 to 1364 MW by 2030, the country is also considering introducing coal plants and increasing electricity generation from natural gas.13 While coal technologies are not yet available in the country, these actions would lock in carbon intensive technologies that would prevent Ghana from aligning with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Targets and commitments
Note: Industry sector coverage only accounts for Industry (processes).14
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional target:
- Absolute emissions reduction of 24.6 MtCO₂e by 2030 (incl. LULUCF). Note that agriculture emissions are not covered by the NDC target.17,18,19
Conditional target:
- Absolute emissions reduction of 64 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF), and 40.4 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.20 Note that agriculture emissions are not covered by the NDC targets. This translates into 42 MtCO₂e in emissions per year by 2030 or 32% above 2015 emissions levels.21,22,23
- The reductions targets (incl. LULUCF) are assumed to be relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, but the updated NDC does not specify this.
Market mechanisms
- Ghana is seeking to mobilise USD 5.4 billion for its conditional interventions from public, private sector, and international sources, as well as carbon markets.24
- Ghana will advocate adopting appropriate carbon pricing measures, including the operationalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and other international carbon market instruments.25
Long-term target
- To date, Ghana has not articulated a long-term strategy.26 In September 2022, Vice President Bawumia announced Ghana was committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.27
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Scale up share of renewable energy in total energy mix to 10% by 2030 (resulting in an emissions reduction potential of 1388.42 kt).28,29
- Increase Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) penetration to 50% of households by 2030.30
- 20% reduction in fugitive methane from oil and gas infrastructure (resulting in emissions reduction of 74.6 kt).31
- 31% reduction in black carbon emissions from charcoal production through promotion of “sustainable charcoal production” (resulting in emissions reduction of 1542.99 kt).32
- Expand the adoption of market-based cleaner cooking solutions (resulting in emissions reduction of 4214.2 kt).33
Power
- Universal access to grid electricity by 2025.34
- Increase renewable energy capacity from 42.5 MW in 2015 to 1363.63 MW in 2030.35
- Attain 150-250 MW utility-scale solar capacity and 50-150 MW utility-scale wind capacity by 2030.36
- Promote clean rural households lighting (resulting in emissions reduction of 175.14 kt).37
- Low-carbon electricity generation (resulting in emissions reduction of 4439.9 kt).38
Transport
- Expansion of inter and intra city transportation modes (resulting in emissions reduction of 109.9 kt).39
Buildings
- Promotion of energy efficiency in homes, industry, and commerce (resulting in emissions reduction of 1899.3 kt).40
- Refrigeration and air conditioning (resulting in emissions reduction of 3874.2 kt).41
Industry
- Sustainable production in industry (resulting in emissions reduction of 1480.7 kt).42
Waste
- Adopt alternative urban solid waste management (resulting in emissions reduction of 21,313 kt).43
Agriculture
- Sector not accounted for in mitigation actions of updated NDC).
LULUCF
- Promote gender-responsive sustainable forest management (resulting in emissions reduction of 23,565 kt).44