What is Ghana's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 October 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its updated 2021 NDC, Ghana has committed to an unconditional target of an absolute emissions reduction of 24.6 MtCO₂e by 2030 (incl. LULUCF), and a conditional target of reducing 64 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) by 2030.1 Excluding LULUCF, the conditional target translates to 2030 emissions levels of around 42 MtCO₂e/yr or an increase in emissions of 32% above 2015 levels, less ambitious than its previous NDC.2,3,4,5

With international support, Ghana could reduce its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and a 1.5°C aligned domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions levels of 19-27 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a reduction of 14-39% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions. Ghana’s NDC target will need to be strengthened in order to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Ghana's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

To date, Ghana has not articulated a long-term strategy, though in September 2022, Vice President Bawumia announced Ghana was committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.6,7 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Ghana should emit no more than 20 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF) – a GHG emissions reduction of 37% below 2015 levels.

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the energy sector would need to be the first to fully decarbonise by 2050 in some scenarios. Remaining GHG emissions will largely be from the agriculture sector, alongside smaller, but nonetheless significant, contributions from the waste and industrial processes sectors.

Over the long-term, efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating Ghana’s commitments to limit deforestation and afforest degraded lands, may create effective national carbon sinks, which can be driven by reducing traditional biomass consumption.8

Ghana's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would see the share of fossil fuels in Ghana’s primary energy mix decline from over 50% in 2019 to around 10% in 2040, and ultimately to less than 5% by 2050. Transportation and electricity production account for the largest shares of sectoral emissions, and therefore hold the greatest potential for achieving significant decarbonisation.9,10

This is possible with the rapid and extensive uptake of renewables to 44-89% of the energy mix by 2040, and close to 100% by 2050. While almost half of Ghana’s energy mix was renewable in 2019, the vast majority of this is traditional biomass such as wood and charcoal, which have negative health and sustainability implications. Ghana’s uptake of renewable energy would need to facilitate a transition from traditional biofuels to electrification at the household level.11 Such extensive transformation would likely require some level of technical and financial support to facilitate.

Lower penetration of renewables would require the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDRs) such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance residual emissions. Some models show up to 18% of the energy mix sourced from BECCS and other zero carbon technologies between 2040-2050.

These technologies are unlikely to be implemented in the country, as they are not yet available and would require high up-front costs, which could be avoided by implementing stringent policies to reduce land sector emissions. The LULUCF sector could subsequently become a carbon sink and contribute further to negative emissions.

Ghana's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ghana. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
32
36
23
19 to 27
18
16 to 22
15
12 to 20
Relative to reference year in %
-29%
-39 to -14%
-45%
-51 to -30%
-53%
-62 to -37%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
13
15
10
8 to 11
5
2 to 8
2
-1 to 4
2059
2047 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %
-20%
-38 to -14%
-59%
-85 to -42%
-82%
-107 to -67%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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