What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the HPA scenario, fossil fuels could be phased out of the power mix by 2030 driven by strong renewables growth, reaching 90% (predominantly wind and solar). This would result in emissions reductions of 74% in 2030 compared to 2023 levels. Renewables would grow to 94% by 2035 and reach 97% by 2050. Biofuels are gradually phased out from electricity generation, reaching negligible amounts by 2050. By mid-century the grid would be supplied by 46% wind and roughly 50% solar energy. As a result of electrification across end-use sectors, the HPA scenario projects electricity demand will grow by 117% from 500 TWh/yr in 2023 to 1080 TWh/yr in 2050. This demand growth would be smaller with the power sector fully transitioned to more efficient renewables than if it prolongs the use of inefficient fossil fuels.

Germany has set an 80% renewable electricity target by 2030,¹1 which falls short of the HPA scenario. Coal has not been completely phased out from Germany’s power sector, though it has been declining rapidly. To align with the HPA scenario, Germany needs to phase-out coal by 2030, eight years before Germany’s current phase out target year of 2038.²2 In response to the energy crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, Chancellor Merz has signaled the phase-out of coal may be delayed, as they will keep existing coal-fired power stations connected to the grid longer should the energy crisis continue.³3

In March 2026, the German Government released its Klimaschutzprogramm outlining 67 measures to limit its dependence on fossil fuels.⁴4 This comes on the cusp of an energy crisis triggered by the US-Isael war on Iran which has increased global fuel prices. The Klimaschutzprogramm plans to add 12 GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030 – a move which is expected to reduce electricity prices by EUR 0.6c.⁵5

There are still no signs that Germany is planning to phase-out fossil gas, rather, Germany is deepening its reliance on it. Based on signed LNG contracts to date, Germany will grow its LNG supply well into 2049, sourced mostly from the US.⁶6 In 2025, the CDU-led government announced Germany will add 20 GW of new gas plant capacity, equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Under the HPA scenario, CCS equipped to fossil fuels plays a negligible role in the transition. Germany’s current plans will likely only prolong the use (and dependency) of fossil gas in the system while making the cost of the transition higher for the economy and society in the long term.

As of January 2026, Germany has 15GW of new gas power plants in development of the 20GW it committed to building.⁷7 The government also announced that 12 GW of these new powerplants must be hydrogen-capable and designed in a way that a switch later to green hydrogen is possible. ⁸8 This will only prolong the use of fossil gas, especially if the production volumes of green hydrogen won’t be met in the future. Under the HPA scenario, hydrogen has no role in the power sector in Germany. Given the limited supply of green hydrogen production in the pipeline, whatever supply of hydrogen produced from renewables is available will need to be directed to end use sectors such as industry and shipping – as indicated by the scenario.

Germany’s grid infrastructure and market are in need of serious improvements. Both to increase connectivity internally and with other EU countries and to increase the storage capacity to limit or avoid curtailment of excess renewable energy. As wind and solar continue to scale up, the overproduction of renewable electricity has resulted in negative electricity prices because it cannot it be consumed fast enough, as well as the lack of storage capacity and grid bottlenecks.⁹9 Germany curtailed 9.6TWh of electricity, roughly 4% of the energy produced by wind and solar in 2025.¹⁰10

Germany must disentangle the influence of gas prices dictating final electricity prices even when gas contributes minority shares in the electricity market. Gas is often the last and most expensive source needed to meet demand, acting as a price-setter.¹¹11^,1212 In Germany, the cost of solar and wind have dramatically fallen since 2010. In 2010 the levelized cost of electricity from solar was EUR 392 EUR/ MWh, and onshore wind cost 144 EUR/MWh. In 2024 that fell to 54 EUR/MWh and 43 EUR/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, when fuel costs for gas spiked in August 2022 to 465 EUR/MWh, so did electricity prices.¹³13