Singapore updated its NDC in 2020 without increasing its ambition.4 Singapore’s NDC target is to peak emissions at 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 which would translate in an increase in GHG emissions of 32% above 2015 levels by 2030. Singapore is currently reviewing its NDC.3
A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires Singapore to reduce emissions by around 61% from 2015 levels or 19 MtCO₂e by 2030 and to peak its emissions almost immediately.
As a city state, Singapore has a limited capacity to rely on LULUCF sector as a carbon sink. However, Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing climate finance support to other countries. A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Singapore to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to poor countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Long term pathway
Singapore has an emissions target of 32 MtCO₂e by 2050 and plans for net zero emissions in the second half of the century, which is at odds with achieving a 1.5°C pathway. To be 1.5°C compatible the country would need to reach a level of GHG emissions of 0 (-2 to 2) MtCO₂e, or a 100% (97-104%) reduction below 2015 levels by 2050.22,23 Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from carbon dioxide approaches or a fully decarbonised energy system based on renewables. Energy sector emissions would need to peak immediately.
Singapore implemented a carbon tax for industrial facilities of SGD$5/tCO₂e (roughly USD$3.7/tCO₂e) in 2019. The carbon tax will remain at this price until 2023, with plans to increase to SGD$25 per tonne by 2030 and further to SGD$ 50-80 per tonne by 2050.9 This would need to increase substantially in order to reduce emissions to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.12
A fair share contribution to international efforts can lead to additional emissions reductions. Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing support to other countries, for example, through climate finance.
11 Duarte, C., Raftery, P. & Schiavon, S. Development of Whole-Building Energy Models for Detailed Energy Insights of a Large Office Building with Green Certification Rating in Singapore. Energy Technol. 6, 84–93 (2018).
15 Vidinopoulos, A., Whale, J. & Fuentes Hutfilter, U. Assessing the technical potential of ASEAN countries to achieve 100% renewable energy supply. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assessments 42, 100878 (2020).
21 Data excludes Land use, Land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions. However, Singapore’s LULUCF emissions account for very little (e.g. 0.1 MtCO₂e/yr in 2014).
22 32 MtCO₂e calculated in AR4 values by the Climate Action Tracker. Source cites 33 MtCO₂e/yr in AR5GWP values.
23 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
The power sector will play the largest role in decarbonising the energy mix, particularly as the industry, transport and building sectors become further electrified. Ramping up electrification of these sectors and the inclusion of an ambitious renewable energy target would assist in decarbonising the energy sector. Singapore currently has a solar target of 2 GW to be installed by 2030, and a plan to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040.
Primary energy consumption is mainly from the industry sector, as its economy heavily relies on its oil refining and petrochemical hub. Singapore has the opportunity to transition its economy away from fossil fuels, for example transitioning to a regional or global green hydrogen hub. Paris Agreement compatible pathways analysed here underestimate the potential for green hydrogen imports in future, which has applications to decarbonise power, industry and transport sectors. As many countries decarbonise their economies, the uptake of renewables and green hydrogen is likely to increase sharply which could be the opportunity for Singapore to transform its economy.
Singapore’s Low Emissions Development Strategy includes considering ‘low carbon’ hydrogen. Importing hydrogen derived from renewables could be explored as an option to further decarbonise the primary energy.
Singapore’s low carbon strategy aims to rely on carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of its fourth energy switch, despite recognising the technology is limited by economic, institutional and technical constraints.5 There are no operational CCS projects linked to power generation in Southeast Asia, and the technology applied elsewhere is proving costly.13 Renewable energy (including imports) in combination with energy efficiency to reduce energy demand will lower the need for CDR technology.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Singapore. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.