Singapore updated its NDC in 2020 without increasing its ambition. Singapore’s NDC target is to peak emissions at 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 which would translate in an increase in GHG emissions of 32% above 2015 levels by 2030. Singapore is currently reviewing its NDC.
A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires Singapore to reduce emissions by around 61% from 2015 levels or 19 MtCO₂e by 2030 and to peak its emissions almost immediately.
As a city state, Singapore has a limited capacity to rely on LULUCF sector as a carbon sink. However, Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing climate finance support to other countries. A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Singapore to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to poor countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Long term pathway
Singapore has an emissions target of 32 MtCO₂e by 2050 and plans for net zero emissions in the second half of the century, which is at odds with achieving a 1.5°C pathway. To be 1.5°C compatible the country would need to reach a level of GHG emissions of 0 (-2 to 2) MtCO₂e, or a 100% (97-104%) reduction below 2015 levels by 2050., Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from carbon dioxide approaches or a fully decarbonised energy system based on renewables. Energy sector emissions would need to peak immediately.
Singapore implemented a carbon tax for industrial facilities of SGD$5/tCO₂e (roughly USD$3.7/tCO₂e) in 2019. The carbon tax will remain at this price until 2023, with plans to increase to SGD$25 per tonne by 2030 and further to SGD$ 50-80 per tonne by 2050. This would need to increase substantially in order to reduce emissions to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
A fair share contribution to international efforts can lead to additional emissions reductions. Singapore can further reduce emissions overseas by providing support to other countries, for example, through climate finance.