1.5°C compatible pathways
Raising 2030 ambition
In its updated NDC, submitted in 2021, Bhutan commits to remaining carbon neutral. According to its third national communication to UNFCCC, Bhutan’s carbon sink capacity in 2015 was 7.8 MtCO₂e (after converting in to GWP AR4), which means that to remain carbon neutral, it would need to keep emissions below 7.8 MtCO₂e.2 Bhutan’s BAU emissions level translates into an increase in emissions of 78–80% above 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
Bhutan’s current policies and action have been rated compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory by the Climate Action Tracker] While Bhutan’s first NDC covered broad priority action areas, its updated NDC further elaborates priority mitigation actions in the form of a low emissions development strategy (LEDS) for food security, human settlement, transport and industry. The mitigation actions are conditional on international financial support. If Bhutan implements the measures listed in its NDC and LEDS, its emissions would increase much less, by 7–21% above 2015 levels by 2030(excluding LULUCF).
1.5°C compatible pathways would require Bhutan to reach emissions levels of 1.7–2.3 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, a reduction of around 26% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The country would need international support to implement its planned mitigation measures.
Long term pathway
1.5°C compatible pathways for Bhutan indicate that the country will need to reduce its GHG emissions by 46–79% below 2015 levels (or reach 0.5–1.2 MtCO₂e) by 2050, excluding LULUCF.
As part of its updated NDC, submitted in July 2021, Bhutan sets an indicative goal of reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050. While Bhutan has not submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of April 2023, its updated NDC aims to maintain carbon neutrality. Within the NDC document, the government has developed Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) for transport, industrial, human settlement, and food sectors outlining how Bhutan aims to maintain carbon neutrality. Yet, the net zero goal outlined in the LEDS relies, at least partially, on emissions credits gained by exporting renewable hydropower to India.
1 Royal Government of Bhutan. Kingdom of Bhutan Second Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).
2 Royal Government of Bhutan. Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. (2020).
3 World Bank. Manufacturing, value added (constant 2015 US$) – Bhutan. (2021).
4 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021) doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
5 OEC. Cement in Bhutan. OEC – The Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2020).
6 IRENA. Energy Profile: Bhutan. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021).
7 CEA. Note on cooperation with Bhutan.(2021).
8 Ministry of Economic Affairs. Bhutan sustainable hydropower development policy 2021. (2021).
9 IRENA. Kingdom of Bhutan: Renewables readiness assessment. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2019).
10 Gyeltshen, N. Bhutan ramps up its solar energy ambitions. The Third Pole. (2022).
11 Ministry of Information and Communication. Low Emission Development Strategy for Surface Transport 2021. (2021).
12 Zangpo, T. Bhutan to explore hydrogen as an alternative fuel source. Kuensel Online (2022).
13 Lhaden, Y. 70% of vehicles to be replaced by EVs by 2035. Kuensel Online. (2022).
14 Climate Action Tracker. Bhutan. July 2023 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2023).
Bhutanʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
Bhutanʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bhutan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 2 | 3 | 2 2 | 1 1 | 1 0 to 1 | 2067 2057 |
Relative to reference year in % | −11% −26 to 0% | −49% −56 to −37% | −60% −79 to −46% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 1 | 2 | 1 1 to 2 | 1 0 to 1 | 0 0 to 1 | 2061 2045 |
Relative to reference year in % | 0% −10 to 13% | −41% −82 to −24% | −79% −114 to −51% |