About
About the project
Under the Paris Agreement, governments put forward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that lay out how they will cut emissions this decade in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The targets made so far are not sufficient to achieve this goal; they collectively put the world on a path to approximately 2.4°C of warming.
National governments urgently need to set more ambitious emission reduction targets to align global trajectories with the Paris Agreement. For many countries, meeting these domestic targets will require international support.
The latest reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown not only why governments must act urgently to prevent higher levels of warming, but also how emissions can be brought to net zero by mid-century and keep the 1.5°C limit in reach.
In this project, Climate Analytics uses 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed by the IPCC in combination with more recent lines of scientific evidence to show how a selection of 64 countries across all regions and levels of development can align their decarbonisation trajectories with the Paris Agreement, and live up to their promises to prevent the worst climate change impacts. Additionally, the webtool features in-depth policy assessment for 25 of these countries, to provide context for the decarbonisation trajectories.
Funding Sources
The IKEA Foundation is the philanthropic arm of INGKA Foundation, the owner of the IKEA Group of companies. It aims to improve opportunities for children and youth in some of the world’s poorest communities by funding holistic, long-term programmes that can create substantial, lasting change. The IKEA Foundation works with strong strategic partners applying innovative approaches to achieve large-scale results in four fundamental areas of a child’s life: a place to call home; a healthy start in life; a quality education; and a sustainable family income, while helping these communities fight and cope with climate change.
Main contributors
The 1.5°C national pathways explorer is a project developed by Climate Analytics. Current contributors (as of May 2024) include:
Project lead: Jane Ellis
Project management: Clare Waldmann
Modelling: Lara Welder (lead), Marie-Charlotte Geffray (overall pipeline, downscaling), Neil Grant (global pathways, investments), Jonas Hörsch (global pathways, algorithmic downscaling, overall pipeline), Claire Fyson and
Firza Riany (land use and forestry pathways), Tina Aboumahboub (investments in power sector)
Policy analysis: Marie-Camille Attard (lead), Carley Reynolds (data lead, country analysis), Kim Coetzee (country analysis, Nandini Das (country analysis), Neil Grant (country analysis), Victor Maxwell (country analysis), Hannah Grant (country analysis), Thomas Houlie (country analysis), Michael Petroni (country analysis), Eoin Quill (country analysis, editing), Olivia Waterton
Reviewers: Winnie Khaemba, Estelle Roux
Strategy and guidance: Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer
Outreach and communications: Tessa Evans, Holly Simpkin, Paul May
Technical and research support: Olivia Waterton
Design and web development: CDLX
Prior contributors (pre-December 2023) include:
Anna Chapman, Yvonne Deng, Sarah Heck, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Chelsea Jones, Jae Kim, Sharna Nolan, Yann Robiou du Pont, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Raghu Vyas, Ryan Wilson, Andrzej Ancygier, Sneha Pandey, Arunima Sircar, Celeste Gonzalez, Claire Stockwell, Jan Sindt, Paolo Cozzi, Flavio Gortana, Matthew Gidden, Anne Zimmer, Charlotte Plinke, Jonas Hörsch, Gaurav Ganti, Roufail Mikhaiel, Shalom Udechukwu, Holly Simpkin, Celeste Gonzalez, Deborah Ramalope, Claire Fyson, Alexandre Zounmenou, Samita Sharma.
Co-contributors
Development and update of additional global 1.5°C compatible pathway variants: REMIND-team at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Prior contributors (pre-December 2023) include:
Development and update of additional global 1.5°C compatible pathway variants: IMAGE-team at Universiteit Utrecht, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Sustainable Development, with additional help from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the national stakeholders and civil society organisations for their input, reviews and feedback in the development of the indicators and country level analysis.
For prior versions of this work, we would like to thank the research teams who have made available the underlying data from global least-cost pathways used in this analysis, namely the following modelling teams: AIM, REMIND, MESSAGE and the EWG LUT.
How to cite
To acknowledge or cite this work:
How to cite the tool and/or country specific analysis :
Climate Analytics, 2023. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer. Available at: 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org
Sharing license
The 1.5°C National Pathways Explorercontent, including all text, figures and data, is made available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license, which allows others to distribute, adapt, and build upon the work non-commercially, so long as they cite and credit the original version.
About Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics is a global climate science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit.
We connect science and policy to empower vulnerable countries in international climate negotiations and inform national planning with targeted research, analysis and support.
Our international team of 130 experts and support staff work from our headquarters in Berlin and our regional offices in Africa, Australia and the Pacific, the Caribbean, North America and South Asia.
Get in touch
We welcome any feedback or comments on the assessment to improve our tool. If you have any inquiries or feedback on the tool, data or assessments please reach out to 1.5npe@climateanalytics.org.
For media enquiries please contact:
press@climateanalytics.org
+49 (0) 17656734870